Categories: Analysis

Could the Braves actually miss the postseason?

The Braves are out of the NL playoff picture for the first time since 2022. (Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire)

Maybe a Phillies vs. Braves postseason rematch isn’t in the cards after all.

The Braves, losers of five in a row after being swept at home by the Milwaukee Brewers, are a half game behind the New York Mets for the third wild card spot in the National League. Per Anthony DiComo of MLB.com, it is the first time Atlanta has not occupied a playoff position since June 10, 2022.

It’s been a tough year for Atlanta, who started the year 19-7 and have gone 41-47 since April 30. They lost ace Spencer Strider for the entire season in April after he underwent internal brace surgery in his right elbow. Reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. was also lost for the entire year after suffering his second ACL tear in three years. Center fielder Michael Harris II has also been out since June 15 with a hamstring strain.

Outside of injuries, the stars that have stayed healthy have not performed. Matt Olson has a .931 OPS over his last 15 games, but his season OPS is down 273 points from 2023. Sean Murphy, after a strong first year at the plate with Atlanta, has a .664 OPS in 157 plate appearances. Outside of Austin Riley and Marcell Ozuna, who are both having excellent seasons at the plate, the Braves offense has been mostly feast or famine. It’s a different feel from last season, when the Braves offense posted a record .501 slugging percentage.

The lack of quality starting pitching depth, however, is the biggest reason why they are currently on the outside looking in. Thirteen different pitchers have started at least one game for the Braves as they have opted to bring guys up-and-down from the minors to fill innings.

Even without Strider, the Braves rotation is formidable when healthy. Trading for Chris Sale and signing Reynaldo Lopez as a starter turned out to be brilliant moves. When Sale, Lopez and Max Fried are starting, the Braves are a combined 38-21 and 22-33 with anyone else on the mound.

But Sale, Lopez and even breakout rookie Spencer Schwellenbach all have to be protected, forcing the Braves to tap further into their pitching depth. Sale has pitched on regular rest only twice all season after throwing 151 innings combined over the last four seasons. Lopez, who is currently on the 15-day IL, has already thrown more innings than he has in a single season since 2019. Schwellenbach, a shortstop in college who is in his first full season as a starting pitcher, is having his next start skipped due to workload concerns.

The Braves, however, are still a threat if they do make the postseason with their top four starters healthy. Getting there may be the bigger issue and if they don’t start playing better baseball, actually missing the postseason becomes more and more realistic. The Diamondbacks, Mets and Padres, who are now all ahead of the Braves, have the first, second and fourth-best records in MLB since June 1. Atlanta’s postseason odds, which were at 94.4% as recent as July 20 according to FanGraphs, are now down to 66.6%.

As early as last week, it appeared the Braves were on the verge of making the NL East race more interesting. They got to within five games after the Phillies dropped the second of three against the Mariners, but the lead is back to 7.5 and could stretch to 8.5 with a Phillies win against the Diamondbacks in Arizona.

Despite all of the struggles since mid-June, the Phillies are exactly where they need to be. Much of that is thanks to the disappointing Braves.