Categories: Analysis

With Phillies’ recent struggles, the NL playoff race has gotten tighter

Rob Thomson is in his third season as Phillies manager. (Grace Del Pizzo/Phillies Nation)

Entering July, the Phillies had a 3.5-game lead over the Dodgers for the best record in the National League. They also had an 8.0-game lead over the Braves and an 11.5-game lead over the Cardinals, who were the third Wild Card team at the time.

After sweeping the Dodgers in the second week of July, the Phillies’ lead over LA reached 6.5 games, while their lead over the Brewers — the NL’s third-best team — was 7.5. Meanwhile, their divisional lead stood at 9.5 and they had a 13.5-game lead over the third Wild Card team, the Mets.

Now, nearly four weeks later, the NL’s playoff race has gotten much tighter.

After Tuesday’s win over the Dodgers, the Phillies’ lead over LA went back up to 1.5 games after it was a half-game heading into the night. Only 3.5 games separate them from Milwaukee. Their lead over the Braves is 6.5, who are now the third Wild Card team in the NL. The Padres and Diamondbacks sit in the fourth and fifth Wild Card spots, trailing the Phillies by 5.5 and 6.0 games, respectively.

While they are still holding on to both their divisional and league lead, Rob Thomson’s club had chances over the last three-plus weeks to distance themselves from clubs like the Dodgers and Braves. Since July 12 — the day after the Phillies finished their sweep of the Dodgers — LA is 11-9 and Atlanta has gone 9-11. But the Phillies have struggled, too, with the NL’s worst record (6-14) over that time frame.

There have been a few issues for the Phillies since sweeping the Dodgers early last month. Thomson has noted during this most recent stretch that when the club pitches well, they don’t hit well, and when they hit well, they don’t pitch well. In other words, if it’s not one thing, it’s another. As a whole, they haven’t been clicking like they had during the first half of the year.

Thomson’s team entered Tuesday night ranked 15th in the NL in OPS (.694) and 13th in runs scored with 82 since July 12. The club’s pitching staff — a major strength for most of the season — posted a 5.58 ERA in that period, ranking 14th in the NL. Breaking it down even further, Phillies’ starters had a 4.51 ERA during that stretch. The bullpen’s ERA was an astronomical 7.01.

Things could be starting to turn around, though. Winners of two of their last three, the Phillies scored six runs on Tuesday. Kyle Schwarber singled and homered to drive in two of those runs. Edmundo Sosa also singled and homered, plating three runs in the process. Cristopher Sánchez tossed a strong six-plus innings and was charged with one earned run. Matt Strahm, Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estévez got the final nine outs to finish off the win.

Things will remain difficult for the Phillies over the next five days. They have one more game against the Dodgers as they look to win their first series since sweeping LA last month. Then, it’ll be off to Arizona for four games against the Diamondbacks — owners of the best record in Major League Baseball (20-9) since the start of July. After Sunday, there will be more clarity on whether the Phillies have righted the ship.

A bad three-plus week stretch of baseball from mid-July to early August hasn’t been the end of the world. The Phillies still lead their division and have the best record in the NL. But things have gotten a bit tighter in the standings, making everything feel and seem more important. By season’s end, this stretch could end up being an outlier for a team that pushes the 100-win mark, wins their division and clinches the NL’s No. 1 seed. With 49 games left to play, only time will tell.