There’s no way to sugarcoat it — the Philadelphia Phillies have had a disastrous start to the second half of the season, going just 7-15 in their first 21 games following the All-Star Break.
You can definitely find some silver linings to point to, such as the fact that the Phillies still have a 7 1/2 game lead over the Atlanta Braves in the National League East despite a horrid stretch. Both the Braves and New York Mets are in the thick of the NL Wild Card race, but they’ve failed to run through the door when the Phillies have given them a chance to really push them in the NL East.
But while the Phillies remain 20 games above .500 at 69-49, they are now tied with the Los Angeles Dodgers for the best record in the NL. The Milwaukee Brewers (67-50), Arizona Diamondbacks (66-53) and San Diego Padres (66-53) are all within striking distance of the Phillies. That means that earning the No. 1 seed in the NL playoffs — or at least one of the top two spots, which comes with a first-round bye — is no longer a certainty.
As the Phillies return home following a 10-game West Coast trip, these are the five players who have been the most concerning in the second half and need to get turned around as manager Rob Thomson’s club looks to right the ship.
José Alvarado, Reliever
Just prior to the All-Star Break, we wrote a piece about Alvarado’s struggles at the end of the first half of the season. Thomson thought that a bit of time off would help the flame-throwing lefty to get back on track, but it hasn’t.
Alvarado allowed three earned runs — including an opposite-field home run by Corbin Carroll — in Sunday’s shellacking at the hands of the Diamondbacks. On the season, Alvarado’s ERA is 4.53. Since the All-Star Break, Alvarado has a 7.27 ERA over 10 appearances.
What continues to be the most concerning trend for Alvarado is that the 29-year-old isn’t generating as many swings and misses as he once did. His K/9 in 2024 is 9.3, as opposed to 13.9 in 2023 and 14.3 in 2022. The whiff rate — the amount of swings and misses you get on a pitch in any count — for Alvarado’s sinker this year is 14.5%. A year ago, Alvarado had a 24.6% whiff rate on the pitch. Considering Alvarado uses the sinker 60.6% of the time, that’s a drastic dip that does account, at least partially, for a drop in effectiveness this year.
Bryson Stott, Second Baseman
It’s been a thoroughly disappointing campaign for Stott, which makes you wonder about his future at second base with the Phillies.
Since the All-Star Break, Stott has hit just .222 with a .568 OPS. On the season, Stott is hitting .235 with a .659 OPS. Not only has he failed to take another step forward after hitting .280 with a .747 OPS a year ago, but Stott has regressed back to the level that he hit at in his rookie season of 2022.
Stott has still provided value elsewhere, such as his 23 stolen bases and 10 defensive runs saved. But if you thought Stott would emerge as a legitimate top-of-the-order hitter in his third MLB season, the former first-round pick hasn’t come close to doing so.
Given that Trea Turner has 35 errors and -22 defensive runs saved at shortstop since joining the Phillies, it’s becoming clear that his long-term future — and maybe even near-term future — will have to be somewhere other than that position. That likely would mean second base. A move back to shortstop would hurt Stott’s value, as he’s graded out much better defensively at second base. And with how poorly he’s hit this year, you wonder if it would be a guarantee for the Phillies that Stott just goes back to his natural position if Turner displaces him at second base.
Cristopher Sánchez, LHP
Sánchez pitched very well at Dodger Stadium on Aug. 6, going six innings and allowing just one earned run. However, that was wedged in between a pair of brutal starts against the New York Yankees and Diamondbacks where he allowed 13 earned runs over just 10 1/3 innings pitched. Since pitching in the All-Star Game, Sánchez has a 6.11 ERA over five starts.
Sunday’s start against the Snakes is probably the most concerning. Not only is Sánchez among a growing list of Phillies who have had some notable struggles at Chase Field, but it was yet another clunker on the road. This season, the 27-year-old’s home/road splits have been rather drastic.
12 starts at Citizens Bank Park: 6-3, 2.32 ERA, 1.017 WHIP over 77 2/3 innings
11 starts on the road: 2-5, 5.53 ERA, 1.770 WHIP over 53 2/3 innings
What’s particularly concerning is that the Phillies will most likely have home-field advantage at least in the divisional round of the playoffs this year. That would mean Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola probably start at home, before some combination of Sánchez and Ranger Suárez pitches on the road. Between now and then, Sánchez needs to improve his results away from Citizens Bank Park.
Brandon Marsh, Outfielder
So much has been made of Marsh’s struggles against left-handed pitching, but since the All-Star Break he hasn’t really hit well against anyone. Getting even more consistent at-bats than he did in the first half of the season, Marsh is hitting just .149 with a .485 OPS in the start of the second half. In 74 plate appearances, Marsh has struck out a staggering 27 times.
Like with Stott, there’s still some really good value from Marsh in the field. He sometimes struggles to take charge in center field, but generally does a very good job in the outfield overall. In fact, Marsh has six outfield assists and 12 defensive runs saved this year, the bulk of which have come in left field, where he’s played at a Gold Glove caliber.
But whether Marsh ever hits against lefties or not, the Phillies need him to begin mashing righties again. At the very least, he has to put the ball in play more often, because the clip he’s striking out at is unsustainable for someone that isn’t an elite power hitter.
Orion Kerkering, Reliever
It will be interesting to see how down the stretch the Phillies manage the workload of Kerkering, who is pitching more than he ever has in his first full MLB campaign. Right now, it appears he’s hit a late-summer wall, with a 7.00 ERA in 10 appearances since the All-Star Break, as opposed to a 1.26 ERA in 35 outings before the midsummer classic.
Rather amazingly, the home run that Kerkering allowed to Jake McCarthy in Thursday’s win over the Diamondbacks was the first of his MLB career, regular or postseason. Where the 23-year-old tends to get himself in trouble is when he loses the strike zone. He’s already walked six batters in nine frames of work in the second half. Prior to the All-Star Break, Kerkering allowed just six total walks over 35 2/3 innings pitched.
Kerkering is another pitcher you worry about having to go back into Chase Field in the postseason. Things didn’t go well for him in last year’s NLCS, and he didn’t exactly exorcise any demons in this past weekend’s four-game set.
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