The Philadelphia Phillies are only slated to have two free agents after the 2024 season, but they’re arguably the two biggest arms in manager Rob Thomson’s bullpen currently.
Both Carlos Estévez and Jeff Hoffman are going to be free agents this winter, and each likely will hit the open market in search of closer-type money on a multi-year commitment.
Estévez, 31, was acquired in a trade with the Los Angeles Angels prior to the July 30 trade deadline, and is the de-facto closer for the Phillies now. He has one save and hasn’t allowed any earned runs over his first five appearances in red pinstripes.
Though he did ultimately walk in winning run in his second inning of work against the Seattle Mariners on Aug. 3, there are a bunch of caveats. First of all, it was a rare second frame for the reliever. Secondly, the run that scored was the zombie runner. And finally, home-plate umpire Ryan Wills capped off a pretty brutal night behind the plate by missing what should have been an inning-ending strike three for Estévez before he ended up walking in the winning run.
Between the Angels and Phillies this season, Estévez has a 2.04 ERA and has recorded 21 saves in 24 attempts. Because he was traded during the season, Estévez will not be eligible for a qualifying offer this offseason. So if he leaves in free agency, the Phillies won’t receive anything.
To land Estévez, the Phillies gave up pitching prospects George Klassen and Samuel Aldegheri, who had previously been the No. 4 and No. 10 prospects in the farm system, according to Phillies Nation‘s Ty Daubert.
Obviously, any team would like to acquire a pitcher that’s controllable for more than just a few months, but president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and the Phillies believed Estévez was the best fit to help them maximize their World Series chances in 2024.
“…It’s probably a little more than you’d like to give up for a rental, but who knows, maybe we’ll sign him once the year is over too. You never can tell,” Dombrowski said.
As for Hoffman, he was an All-Star for the first time this season, as he posted a minuscule 1.12 ERA over 41 appearances prior to the midsummer classic. However, he’s struggled since the second half started, getting hit hard by the Mariners in the aforementioned Aug. 3 loss, and then allowing Arizona Diamondbacks catcher Adrian Del Castillo to hit a walk-off home run last night. Hoffman has a 6.23 ERA in nine appearances since the All-Star Game.
Still, Hoffman has a 2.22 ERA and 0.967 WHIP in 104 games since joining the Phillies. Improbably, he’s become one of the best relievers in baseball.
Like Estévez, Hoffman is 31 and will likely head to the market in the offseason looking for three or four years from perspective suitors. Unlike Estévez, Hoffman will be eligible to receive a qualifying offer — which had a value of $20.325 million last year — from the Phillies.
Hoffman will likely decline the offer, but it could hurt him a bit in free agency, as any signing team would have to surrender draft compensation to sign Hoffman. The Phillies would get a compensatory pick after the fourth round of the 2025 MLB Draft if Hoffman declines the QO and goes elsewhere in free agency.
Given that the Phillies already have $222.76 million in payroll commitments for 2025 — the highest amount of any team — it feels like the Phillies could end up deciding between Estévez and Hoffman this winter. Heck, with Ranger Suárez, Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto all set to become free agents after 2025, it’s possible the Phillies don’t meet the free-agent asking price for Estévez or Hoffman in the offseason.
So as Estévez and Hoffman try to help pitch the Phillies to a World Series title this year, it’s worth keeping in mind that the bullpen could look entirely different at this time next year.
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George Waidelich
August 10, 2024 at 6:05 pm
The Phillies would be insane to give Hoffman – or any RP, a QO of $20M/ 1 season. Hoffman, if he bounces back to form and is lights out for the rest of the year-a BIG IF- could possibly get a 3/24M or 2/18M deal maybe a little more or less depending on how he and the team finish this season. Hoffman has a total of 13? career saves. 3 last year, and however many he has this year, the last I checked was a few weeks ago and it was 6 this year. He has blown about half as many attempts in his career. 31 years old and has had 1+ good seasons doesn’t get you paid like a closer. Estevez, provided he continues to pitch like he has all season, could be in line for a 3/30-36M deal? Relievers/Closers don’t hold the value that they did before the Mets signed Edwin Diaz to the worst deal(5/$110M) in MLB since Anthony Rendon ‘s (7/$245M pillage in Anaheim. Relievers over 30, and especially RPs in Philadelphia, don’t get enormous deals(D.Robertson’s 3/39M in which he missed close to or more than 2 of the 3 years of that deal. I expect the Phillies to re-sign the better of the two, if either of them. Kerkering should be the CL of the future, and Alvarado, & Strahm top back end guys. There are always good relievers available for cheap, (Hoffman? Hell, Mariano Rivera was a failed starter before he made his way to the pen. You just have to find the right ones to fill the roles you need filled. With Wheeler, Nola, Walker, Sanchez all with high priced long term deals and Ranger likely to get something done in the off-season, as well as having Painter ready for 2025 and possibly Turnbull, we may see guys like Allard, T.Phillips, Mercado, Ruiz, and Mazar in the pen next year on opening day..
Ari Stotleman
August 11, 2024 at 2:40 pm
If the Phils can’t at least get to the WS in 24 or 25, they should ‘clean house.’