Phillies’ 2024 Magic Number Tracker: Club could secure playoff berth on Wednesday

Updated following all relevant results on Sept. 17, 2024.

The Phillies are getting closer to winning their first National League East title since 2011.

In addition to winning the division, the Phillies would like to finish with one of the two best records among National League division winners to skip the wild card round and start the postseason with home-field advantage in the Division Series. Ideally, the Phillies would like to finish with the best record in the majors to secure home field advantage for the entirety of the postseason.

The Phillies, at 91-60 with 11 games left, have an eight-game lead over the New York Mets in the NL East. The Phillies also have a four-game lead over the Milwaukee Brewers for a first-round bye. They have a two-game lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers for the best record in MLB.

Remaining Schedule

• 1 @ MIL
• 4 @ NYM
• 3 vs. CHC
• 3 @ WSH

NL East Standings

• Phillies: 91-60
• Mets: 83-68 — 8.0
• Braves 81-70 — 10.0

Bye Standings

• Phillies: 91-60
• Dodgers: 89-62 — 2.0
• Brewers: 87-64 — 4.0

Relevant Phillies Tiebreakers

The first tiebreaker in MLB is head-to-head record. The second is record within the division and the third is record against other National League teams not in the same division.

• The Phillies have won the tiebreaker over the Los Angeles Dodgers (5-1).
• The Phillies have lost the tiebreaker over the Atlanta Braves (6-7).
• The Phillies have won the tiebreaker over the Milwaukee Brewers with one head-to-head game left to play (4-1).
• The Phillies lead the New York Mets in the season series 6-3 with four head-to-head games left to play. One more win over the Mets gives them the tiebreaker.
• The Phillies have won the tiebreaker over the San Diego Padres (5-1).
• The Phillies have lost the tiebreaker over the Arizona Diamondbacks (3-4).

Other Relevant National League Tiebreakers

• The Braves and Mets are tied 5-5 in the season series with three head-to-head games left to play.
• The Padres and Diamondbacks are tied 5-5 in the season series with three head-to-head games left to play.
• The Braves have the tiebreaker against the Diamondbacks, but not against the Padres.
• The Mets have the tiebreaker over the Diamondbacks and Padres.
• The Brewers lost the tiebreaker to the Dodgers 3-4. If the Phillies win one more game against the Brewers this season and the Phillies, Brewers and Dodgers all win their respective divisions, but finish with the same record, the Phillies would be the No. 1 seed in the National League. The Dodgers would have the No. 2 seed.

Magic Numbers

• The Phillies’ magic number to clinch a postseason berth is 2.*
• The Phillies’ magic number to clinch the National League East is 4.
• The Phillies’ magic number to clinch a bye to the Division Series is 7.**
• The Phillies’ magic number to clinch the No. 1 seed in the NL is 9.

*The Phillies can clinch a playoff berth with either a win over the Milwaukee Brewers on Wednesday or an Atlanta Braves loss over the Cincinnati Reds. The magic number for a postseason is technically two by virtue of the formula MLB uses — Phillies games remaining + 1 – (Losses by Braves – Losses by Phillies), but since the Braves and Mets meet each other for three in Atlanta beginning on Sept. 24, the Phillies are essentially guaranteed one more loss to help them lower their postseason magic number. The Braves would officially be eliminated from NL East title contention on Wednesday with a loss AND Phillies win.

**The Phillies’ magic number to clinch a bye lowered from 10 to 7 with Tuesday’s victory because it clinched the tiebreaker over Milwaukee.

The earliest possible NL East clinch date is Thursday, Sept. 19 vs. the Mets.

The earliest possible clinch date for a bye to the Division Series is Saturday, Sept. 21 vs. the Mets.

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