Magic Number Tracker: Phillies close to securing NL East, bye to Division Series
Updated following all relevant results on Sept. 21, 2024.
The Phillies are getting closer to winning their first National League East title since 2011.
In addition to winning the division, the Phillies would like to finish with one of the two best records among National League division winners to skip the wild card round and start the postseason with home-field advantage in the Division Series. Ideally, the Phillies would like to finish with the best record in the majors to secure home field advantage for the entirety of the postseason.
The Phillies, at 92-63 with seven games left, have a six-game lead over the New York Mets in the NL East. The Phillies also have a four-game lead over the Milwaukee Brewers for a first-round bye.They are tied with the Los Angeles Dodgers for the best record in MLB.
The first tiebreaker in MLB is head-to-head record. The second is record within the division and the third is record against other National League teams not in the same division.
The Phillies have won the tiebreaker over the Los Angeles Dodgers (5-1).
The Phillies have lost the tiebreaker over the Atlanta Braves (6-7).
The Phillies have won the tiebreaker over the Milwaukee Brewers (4-2).
The Phillies have won the tiebreaker over the New York Mets (7-5) with one head-to-head game left to play.
The Phillies have won the tiebreaker over the San Diego Padres (5-1).
The Phillies have lost the tiebreaker over the Arizona Diamondbacks (3-4).
Other Relevant National League Tiebreakers
The Braves and Mets are tied 5-5 in the season series with three head-to-head games left to play.
The Padres and Diamondbacks are tied 5-5 in the season series with three head-to-head games left to play.
The Braves have the tiebreaker against the Diamondbacks, but not against the Padres.
The Mets have the tiebreaker over the Diamondbacks and Padres.
The Brewers lost the tiebreaker to the Dodgers 3-4. Since the Phillies have the tiebreaker over both the Dodgers and the Brewers, the Phillies would finish with the No. 1 seed if all three teams won their respective divisions and finished with the same record. The Dodgers would be the No. 2 seed.
Magic Numbers
The Phillies’ magic number to clinch the National League East is 1
The Phillies’ magic number to clinch a bye to the Division Series is 3
The Phillies’ magic number to clinch the No. 1 seed in the NL is 7
The earliest possible NL East clinch date is Sunday, Sept. 22 vs. the Mets.
The earliest possible clinch date for a bye to the Division Series is Monday, Sept. 23 vs. the Cubs.
A lifelong native of Philadelphia, Destiny has been a contributor for Phillies Nation since January 2019 and was named Deputy Editorial Director in May 2020.
Feel like the magic number for a berth is in the single digits since the Braves and Mets play each other, so they both cannot 'win out'. One of them is guaranteed at least 2 or 3 losses.
All well and good, but I think what we need to see is the Phils take at least 4 of the 7 with the Mets and 2 of the 3 with the Brewers. Not a wild stretch, and then t he msa
Not covered here are the leads over various AL teams.
Currently,it's 3.5 over the Yankees,4.5 over Clev.,and 5.5 over the Orioles.
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Feel like the magic number for a berth is in the single digits since the Braves and Mets play each other, so they both cannot 'win out'. One of them is guaranteed at least 2 or 3 losses.
All well and good, but I think what we need to see is the Phils take at least 4 of the 7 with the Mets and 2 of the 3 with the Brewers. Not a wild stretch, and then t he msa
Not covered here are the leads over various AL teams.
Currently,it's 3.5 over the Yankees,4.5 over Clev.,and 5.5 over the Orioles.