Reality probably started to set in for the Braves when Nick Castellanos’ 11th-inning single found its way into center field on Sunday. They had arrived in Philadelphia knowing this was their last realistic chance to make a run at a seventh straight National League East crown. They needed three to really put the pressure on, two to keep themselves within arm’s reach.
They accomplished neither.
“There’s no way to sugarcoat it now,” Matt Olson told reporters, including MLB.com’s Mark Bowman, after the game. “It sucks losing the series.”
Stranger things have happened — 2007 taught this lesson to the Phillies — but seven games back with 25 to play is exceedingly difficult to erase. It’ll take quite a few “Phillies lose, Braves win” days for Philadelphia fans to really get concerned again about Atlanta, as far as the division goes.
Perhaps the more legitimate competition for the NL East, which still heavily favors the current division leader, is with New York. The Mets are further back than the Braves are, at 7 1/2 games, but seven of their final 24 will come against the Phillies, including four at Citi Field. They need five of those to give themselves a chance, and probably six to really make it interesting.
FanGraphs and Baseball Reference both give the Phillies above a 95% chance to earn their first division crown since 2011.
But just because the Braves’ lack of regular-season matchups with the Phillies likely — likely, not definitely — dashes their NL East hopes barring extreme circumstances, it’s foolish to assume they’re done playing their division rival until 2025. The last two seasons saw these teams on crash courses to square off in October, and if the Braves hold off the Mets (and Cubs) for the last Wild Card spot, it’ll certainly feel that way again.
“Absolutely,” Brian Snitker said, per Bowman, Sunday when asked whether he’d want to face the Phillies for a third straight October. “I hope we can. I’d love nothing else than to see them again because that means we’re in.”
That last part gives away the point: The Braves just want to get into the dance, any way they can, and whomever it means they play once they get there.
But Snitker had talked for much of the season about his intention to win the NL East, even when the gap in the division was large. If they don’t, it’s entirely possible that a rematch with the Phillies — against whom they are 7-6 this year, despite the losing weekend — would mean a little extra.
“You enjoy playing the good teams,” Olson said, per Bowman. “That happens to be a really good one over there in our division. You play to play against the best.”
Besides, this rivalry has gone similarly each of the past couple years: One team separates with the division lead early in the regular season, can’t quite dig itself out of the hole, still qualifies for the October tournament, then gets through the Wild Card Series and plays the NL East champion in the NLDS, eager to embrace their underdog status and backing it up with a convincing victory to punch their ticket to the League Championship Series, deeming the last 162 games completely irrelevant.
Sounds good to the Braves.
Must-read Phillies content
- Speaking of the postseason, Destiny Lugardo wrote about the Phillies having a month to find the outfield combination that’ll work best in October.
- Aidan Miller is a Double-A Reading Fightin Phil, news Ty Daubert covered on Monday.
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