Ranger Suárez’s velocity still down, but climbing

Ranger Suárez allowed three runs in five innings on Monday in Milwaukee. (Photo by Allan Dranberg/Icon Sportswire)

Unless something goes awry in the next couple weeks, the Phillies will bring into the postseason an asset that some of their top competition in the National League bracket will not: starting pitching health.

But that doesn’t mean the rotation is without question marks — or, at least, one question mark, in the form of Ranger Suárez.

Suárez returned from the injured list on Aug. 24 after lower back soreness sidelined him for a month, and the results have been mixed since then. He’s had decent lines — like that first game back, and again on Sept. 5 — but the underlying numbers have been troubling, particularly in the velocity department.

Suárez bottomed out in that category during the Sept. 5 outing against the Marlins. Despite throwing five scoreless innings, every pitch type the southpaw threw averaged at least 1.2 mph below his season average — and everything except his cutter, his least-utilized offering, was down at least 1.9 mph.

But as Suárez has gotten further and further removed from his IL stint, his velocity has started to creep back up to his typical levels. His next outing, five days later, saw a slight uptick in velocity from that low point, and that trend continued on Monday in Milwaukee. His sinker was up to an average of 90.2 mph, just below his yearlong average of 90.8. His four-seamer, cutter and changeup were all within half a mile-per-hour of his season average, and his curveball was right at his typical 74.5 mph. (All data via Baseball Savant.)

Now, of course, those metrics aren’t going to mean much of anything to anyone if the results don’t follow. Suárez allowed a career-high 12 hits against the Rays in his previous start, and against the Brewers, he allowed three runs on four hits and three walks in five innings, which took him 104 pitches to complete.

But the Phillies won’t need a Game 4 starter, which Suárez figures to be, in the postseason for another 22 days. There’s time for Suárez to return to the Suárez of old, or at least someone resembling the Suárez of old. There’s reason to hope he can get there — at least with his velocity.

Must-read Phillies content

Here’s how Monday went

for the Phillies overall (hint: not well), from Grace Del Pizzo.
Speaking of the postseason rotation, Tim Kelly unpacked a question that could make some headlines over the next few weeks: Could Cristopher Sánchez be the Game 2 starter?
And speaking of the rotation at large, Taijuan Walker is back in it, as Tim covered.
Ty Daubert wrote about a 2023 Phillies bullpen member succeeding in Triple-A.