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Can Zack Wheeler catch Chris Sale in NL Cy Young race?

Can Zack Wheeler catch Chris Sale in the NL Cy Young race? (Grace Del Pizzo/Phillies Nation)

Zack Wheeler built on a tremendous month of August by holding the Miami Marlins to just two hits and one run over six innings in a blowout Philadelphia Phillies win Friday.

Wheeler only threw 84 pitches, so he probably could have gone even deeper in a closer game, but he nonetheless helped his NL Cy Young Award candidacy with another strong outing.

The problem for Wheeler is that the man he’s chasing, Chris Sale, turned in a slightly better performance for the Atlanta Braves Sunday. In an eventual extra-innings victory, Sale held the Toronto Blue Jays scoreless over six innings, striking out seven batters in the process.

As things get to the home stretch, does Wheeler have a chance to usurp Sale as the two battle for an award they’ve each come up just short of winning in the past?

Here’s a look at where Wheeler and Sale stand on a variety of key metrics after their latest outings. Any stat that is bolded means the pitcher leads all qualified NL starters in this mark.

Zack Wheeler

14-6, 2.59 ERA, 3.20 FIP, 0.962 WHIP, 190 strikeouts, 5.0 WAR (Baseball Reference‘s version), 4.7 WAR (FanGraphs‘ version), 22 quality starts and 173 2/3 innings pitched

Chris Sale

Sale: 16-3, 2.38 ERA, 2.02 FIP, 0.996 WHIP, 213 strikeouts, 5.8 WAR (Baseball Reference‘s version), 6.3 WAR (FanGraphs‘ version), 17 quality starts and 166 2/3 innings pitched

The feeling you are left with right now is that if this comes down to dominance, Sale is going to win. As you can see above, Sale leads all NL starters in wins, ERA, FIP, strikeouts and the two most widely used calculations of WAR.

Wheeler’s best case is that he’s been more of workhorse, while still pitching at an extremely high level. Wheeler’s 22 quality starts (at least six innings pitched, three earned runs or fewer) are the most among NL starters, and tied with Logan Gilbert of the Seattle Mariners for most in the sport. He also has Sale bested in the innings department.

The workhorse case might not be strong enough, though. Sale still has 17 quality starts himself and while Wheeler leads him in innings, it’s by less than 10 total. Wheeler is a ways back of Logan Webb of the San Francisco Giants, who leads baseball with 189 2/3 innings pitched.

Remember, when Wheeler finished a close runner-up to Corbin Burnes in 2021, he did it while leading baseball with 213 1/3 innings pitched. Voters still sided with the dominance of Burnes, who led the NL in ERA (2.43), FIP (1.63), strikeouts per nine (12.6) and FanGraphs‘ version of WAR (7.5) for the Milwaukee Brewers.

You can definitely argue that Wheeler should have won the NL Cy Young Award in 2021 because he threw 46 1/3 more innings than Burnes. That’s a massive gap. The gap between innings for Wheeler and Sale is much smaller in 2024.

There is also the narrative factor being on Sale’s side, which does influence some voters. Between 2012 and 2018, Sale finished in the top six in AL Cy Young Award voting every season while pitching for the Chicago White Sox and Boston Red Sox. He peaked at a second-place finish in 2017. Sale seemed destined for the Hall of Fame during that stretch, when he made seven consecutive All-Star Game appearances.

However, injuries appeared to derail Sale’s career over the last five years, as he made just 56 total starts between 2019 and 2023. For him to turn in arguably the most dominant campaign of his career in his age-35 season after half a decade of frustrating injuries is an incredible story. And writers — who are the voters — love incredible stories.

The race isn’t entirely over. Sale has logged 166 2/3 innings this season, more than the four prior campaigns combined. Could he run out of gas and turn in a clunker or two that close the dominance gap between him and Wheeler? Sure. Getting hurt is also a possibility with such a large year-over-year innings increase, but that’s obviously not something you should root for.

Wheeler might end up having to settle for the second runner-up finish in his career. There’s no shame in that, but it would obviously be disappointing for Wheeler given that he’s been pretty open about his desire to win the award.