Predicting the Phillies’ NL East clinch date

Nothing is guaranteed, but even with seven head-to-head games left to go against the second-place New York Mets, the Phillies are on the verge of clinching their first NL East title since 2011.

The magic number, as of Friday, Sept. 13, is down to nine. The lead in the division is at eight.

So when could the Phillies pop champagne again? The Phillies will likely reserve the big celebration for the division clincher. They could clinch a postseason berth before the division — the magic number for the postseason is eight — but any celebration before the division title is wrapped up will likely be a modest one.

The results from this weekend’s series against New York will provide more clarity on exactly when the Phillies could clinch.

The number could drop to as low as two — or stay at nine.

One thing to keep in mind is the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Phillies have a 4-2 lead over the Mets in the season series. With seven games left against the Mets, three wins is enough to secure the first tiebreaker over New York. Philadelphia does not have the tiebreaker over Atlanta.

That means a win to secure a sweep on Sunday could drop the magic number over the Mets to two. If the Braves, who play the Dodgers at home for four, lose the first three games against LA, the magic number over Atlanta also drops to two.

That sets up a clinching scenario for as early as Monday against the Brewers at American Family Field, but that’s the absolute best-case scenario. There is, however, a reasonable chance that the Phillies could clinch in Milwaukee.

Two wins for the Phillies and at least one Braves loss to the Dodgers over the weekend drops the magic number to five. That gives the Phillies a chance to clinch as early as the final game of the Brewers’ series.

But a series win over the Mets, no matter what, sets up the Phillies to clinch the division by the end of the work week.

If you’re hoping for a home clincher during the Cubs series, a Mets sweep over the Phillies would make that more likely. Though that is a scenario the Phillies would like to avoid. It would make next week’s four-game set at Citi Field a lot more interesting.

As the Phillies play the Brewers for three beginning Monday, the Braves will conclude their four-game series against the Dodgers at Truist Park on Monday before heading to Cincinnati for three against the Reds.

Here’s a look at what the Phillies magic number to win the division could look like by the end of the weekend.

The Phillies begin the series with a magic number of nine over the Mets and eight over the Braves. To make the playoffs, the Phillies have to get one of those numbers down to zero. To win the division, both magic numbers have to be zero.

	Phillies sweep	Phillies win 2 of 3	Phillies lose 2 of 3	Phillies swept
Braves win 3	5	6	7	9
Braves win 2	4	5	7	9
Braves win 1	3	5	7	9
Braves lose 3	2	5	7	9

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