The Phillies have a month to go in the regular season. One of the more intriguing roster decisions will be what to do with two thirds of the outfield.
Right field is a given. Despite going through a deep slump early in the season, Nick Castellanos has rebounded to become a consistent producer in the Phillies order. His place in the everyday lineup can no longer be questioned.
What the Phillies do in left and center field is up in the air, though Rob Thomson’s lineups over the last week tell most of the story.
Against right-handed starters, Thomson has preferred a combination of Austin Hays in left field and Brandon Marsh in center. Against lefties, it’s Hays in left and Johan Rojas in center.
Since Hays’ activation from the injured list with a hamstring injury on Aug. 23, he has started seven of the last nine games with a right-handed starting pitcher on the mound.
The results haven’t been great. Hays went 0-for-4 in Sunday’s walk-off win against Atlanta. All four of his at-bats came against right-handed pitching. Since being traded to the Phillies, Hays is batting .196 with a .501 OPS against righties. Against lefties, Hays is 7-for-16 with four extra-base hits.
“Obviously, he’s been better against lefties,” Thomson said. “He’s got to stay on the baseball a little bit more against righties and think the other side of the field.”
When the Phillies originally acquired Hays in a trade with the Baltimore Orioles for Seranthony Domínguez, the initial expectation was that Hays would slide into a platoon role with Marsh in left field. But the Phillies liked Hays’ potential fit as an everyday bat and decided to give him a chance to lock down the role in left field. He went on the injured list on Aug. 9 and for now, it feels like the Phillies aren’t out yet on Hays against right-handed pitching.
“I think he’s held his own, quite frankly,” Thomson said about Hays. “And he’s played very good defense for us. I’ll keep running him out there.”
Then there is center field. It’s been a weird season for Marsh, who has gotten most of the playing time at the position since the trade deadline. Marsh has a .738 OPS, but has struck out in more than a third of his 399 plate appearances. He has also taken a step back against left-handed pitching. Against lefties, he has a .532 OPS and 31 strikeouts in 74 plate appearances.
He’s slowly emerging from an abysmal slump. He has a hit in eight of the last 10 games and went 5-for-20 with three extra-base hits during the most recent homestand. Prior to that, he slashed .167/.226/.298 in 93 plate appearances since the All-Star break.
Has Marsh done enough to secure a starting job in the outfield against right-handed starters? Unless he falls into another deep slump, it would be surprising if Marsh is not regularly in the starting lineup in October against righties.
The question then becomes whether or not Marsh is playing center or left field. If the club wants to prioritize defense, the best alignment to go with is Marsh in left and Johan Rojas in center. Nights like Saturday, with Rojas easily robbing a Matt Olson home run in a close game, are why it’s so tempting for the Phillies to ignore his shortcomings on offense and start him in center field for defense.
If anything, the Phillies have learned more over the last year about the tradeoff they are making when Rojas is in center field. If the Phillies believe that Rojas is incapable of giving them competitive at-bats against postseason caliber pitching, then he may be better suited for a late-inning defensive replacement role.
But when Rojas has been in the starting lineup, the results have been better as of late. He is hitless in his last eight at-bats, but prior to the homestand, Rojas batted .311 with a .732 OPS in the month of August.
“I think he’s seeing a lot more pitches,” Thomson said about Rojas. “He’s cut down his swing, for the most part.”
And then there’s Weston Wilson. All he has done is hit since being recalled to the big leagues, batting .360 with eight extra-base hits in 50 plate appearances. He has crushed lefties to the tune of a 1.237 OPS in 31 plate appearances. He made three straight starts in left field during the Nationals series, hitting for the cycle in one of those three games, and only one since. The Phillies had him in the starting lineup a couple times at third, but he hasn’t looked good at the position. With everyone healthy and Thomson prioritizing at-bats for Hays and Marsh, it’s hard for the Phillies to carve out playing time for Wilson in the outfield. He has hit enough to at least solidify a bench role on the team and has shown to be capable of holding his own in left when he’s in the lineup.
But once October rolls around, the Phillies are going to have to make a call. The outfield alignment will definitely change based on matchups. Against righties, the Phillies went with Rojas in center and Marsh in left in last year’s postseason. Against lefties, excluding the bullpen game started by Arizona lefty Joe Mantiply in Game 4 of the NLCS, the Phillies went with Cristian Pache in left and Rojas in center.
Is it safe to say they are better off in the outfield now than they were last year? Probably. But it will be interesting to see how Thomson and the Phillies handle this decision. If Hays’ struggles against righties continues, a platoon in left with Hays and Marsh may be the best path forward. An injury would change things and Wilson could play a more important role than expected. Or maybe the Phillies conclude that they have a better chance to win postseason games with Rojas in center field for all nine innings.
At the very least, the Phillies have options.
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