Cristopher Sánchez has logged a career-high 177 innings in 2024, but as long as the All-Star lefty has command, manager Rob Thomson doesn’t expect to limit his innings Wednesday as the Philadelphia Phillies try to earn a series victory over the Chicago Cubs.
More important than trying to defeat the Cubs for the Phillies is trying to secure one of the two byes in the National League playoffs. If they win Wednesday and the Milwaukee Brewers lose to the Pittsburgh Pirates, the Phillies will clinch that bye. They would still like to edge out the Los Angeles Dodgers for the No. 1 overall seed in the NL, which could determine what stadium hosts a potential NLCS Game 7.
After tonight, Sánchez’s next start will come in the postseason, in some form. Obviously, exactly when that is will depend on whether the Phillies do indeed lock up the bye, and whether Thomson elects to use Sánchez or Aaron Nola in Game 2 of a postseason series after Zack Wheeler in Game 1.
Thomson didn’t give away the game Wednesday afternoon in meeting with the media, but he did acknowledge some of the things that the Phillies are considering.
“It’s more opponent really than home/road [splits]. But there is some conversation there about the home/road stuff,” Thomson acknowledged.
There’s a strong argument to be made that Sánchez has been one of the 10 best starting pitchers in baseball this season. Despite that, his home/road splits are rather drastic.
Home: 7-3, 2.05 ERA, 0.96 WHIP across 16 starts
Road: 4-6, 5.02 ERA, 1.66 WHIP across 14 starts
Even if you think there’s been some flukiness to Sánchez’s struggles on the road, he’s been so good at home that there’s an argument for trying to line up him at Citizens Bank Park to set him up for success. He’s also had a better year than Nola, even if both have been very effective for the Phillies.
But would the Phillies really wait to have Nola — who has been so dominant early in the postseason — pitch until Game 3?
“…But there’s also, how do other people feel? If Sanchy starts at home here, how does that affect Nola? How does that affect the rest of the clubhouse, that they know that this big-time guy isn’t going in Game 2? So there’s a lot of things that have to go into it,” Thomson said.
Does Thomson think it would affect Nola if he wasn’t chosen to pitch Game 2?
“I don’t think so,” Thomson said.
Anyone who has observed Nola’s career would be inclined to agree. Heck, he not only was OK with Wheeler starting on Opening Day and snapping his six-year streak, he endorsed it.
There is immense respect for Nola in the Phillies clubhouse. He’s the longest-tenured player on the team, and will go down as one of the very best pitchers to ever put on red pinstripes. Is there any deference to Nola because of his status?
“I want the best guys out there as soon as possible,” Thomson said. “And Nola has proven himself. So we’re not there yet. We haven’t gotten the bye yet, so it may not even matter. We just gotta go.”
Barring a scenario where the Phillies lose every game the rest of the season and the Brewers win all of their’s, they are going to get the bye. In the event that they don’t, the Game 2 starter in a best-of-three Wild Card series would be even more important.
But in the best-of-five NLDS, whoever starts Game 2 would also be in line to start a win-or-go-home Game 5. Hearing that may make you inclined to lean with the experience of Nola.
At the same time, Sánchez has tossed two complete games this season and his 4.7 WAR is fifth among all starting pitchers in baseball, according to FanGraphs. There would be some playoff teams where he would be a consideration to start Game 1. For the Phillies to be weighing whether Sánchez should get the ball in Game 2 — particularly with the context of the home/road splits — is justified.
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