Dave Dombrowski comments on 2025 payroll

The Phillies finished the 2024 season with the fourth-highest payroll in baseball. The three teams above them, the Mets, Dodgers and Yankees, all advanced to the League Championship Series. All three teams carried a payroll above $300 million.

Will that alone motivate the Phillies brass to significantly raise payroll in 2025? It’s hard to say for sure, according to Dave Dombrowski. 

Dombrowski, in his yearly end-of-season news conference on Tuesday, claimed that he has not had any specific conversations with ownership about the upper limits of the 2025 payroll, but he doesn’t suspect to have any major restrictions. 

“I have no indication that we’re not going to continue to be aggressive and trying to have an aggressive payroll,” Dombrowski said.

The Phillies payroll will go up significantly in 2025 – even if they do nothing. With Zack Wheeler’s extension kicking in this year, he’ll receive a pay bump from $23.6 million to $42 million. Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh, who are both first-time arbitration eligible in 2025, will collectively add around $6 million to the payroll. They will save some money if they decide to non-tender outfielder Austin Hays. He is estimated to make $6.4 million in arbitration if the Phillies do tender him a contract, per MLB Trade Rumors’ arbitration projections. 

FanGraphs Roster Resource has the Phillies’ 2025 payroll currently at $288 million. They finished 2024 with a payroll around $263 million. 

The Phillies are all but guaranteed to carry a payroll in the third luxury tax tier in 2025 after spending the last two seasons in the second tier. With that comes steeper penalties. The club’s 2026 first-round pick will be moved back 10 spots, unless the 2025 Phillies pull off an epic collapse and pick in the top six. Then their second-round pick will be moved back 10 spots. 

A more expensive payroll also means higher monetary penalties. The luxury tax bill for 2025 is already around $22 million before any new additions. All money spent within the third tier – from $281 to $301 million – will be taxed at 95%. Overages over $301 million are taxed at 110%. 

Does any of that matter to the Phillies? We’ll see. Since paying the luxury tax for the first time in 2022, John Middleton and the ownership group have seemed to be more wary of draft-related penalties. By agreeing to Wheeler’s unique extension, the Phillies will have no choice but to live with the draft penalties for at least the next three years. The luxury tax system could also change dramatically after 2026 when the latest collective bargaining agreement expires. 

Will the payroll being as high as it already is dissuade the Phillies from adding another superstar talent? With multiple veterans in their early 30s on expensive deals, a lucrative TV deal still in place, a healthy season-ticket base and the window of contention still open, it shouldn’t. 

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