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Will Cristopher Sánchez start Game 2? Rob Thomson will take drastic home-road splits into account

Cristopher Sánchez is a candidate to start NLDS Game 2. (Don Otto)

On Aug. 17, Cristopher Sánchez delivered a 99-pitch masterpiece, a two-hit, one-run shutdown of the Washington Nationals. He ignited the home crowd once again with his second complete game at Citizens Bank Park of the year.

Phillies manager Rob Thomson raved about his breakout left-hander’s performance. He was asked why Sánchez had been able to find so much success in his home ballpark compared to on the road. Thomson didn’t give it much thought, chalking it up to randomness.

He’s changed his thinking as the Phillies prepare for the postseason.

With ace Zack Wheeler as the no-doubt Game 1 starter when Philadelphia hosts the beginning of the National League Division Series on Saturday afternoon, Thomson has a decision to make for Sunday’s Game 2. The traditional option would be right-hander Aaron Nola, the longtime top-of-the-rotation guy for the Phillies.

But Sánchez’s brilliance in South Philly — and relative struggles elsewhere — could put him on the mound for Game 2.

“Well, I think it depends on the team we’re playing,” Thomson told reporters via Zoom on Wednesday. “The talk around town is Sanchy’s home-and-road splits, so you got to factor that in. I mean, he’s so much better at home.”

The Phillies, earning a bye into the best-of-five NLDS as the No. 2 team in the National League, await the winner of the Brewers and Mets in their Wild Card Series matchup. New York secured a Game 1 win in that best-of-three series on Tuesday.

Wheeler will surely start Game 1 against any opponent, and left-hander Ranger Suárez will be the fourth starter in the playoff rotation. That leaves Sánchez and Nola for Games 2 and 3 in some order.

Sánchez, whose wife had a baby this week, came to Citizens Bank Park to play catch on Wednesday, but left before the club’s intrasquad game to be with his family. He’ll be fully available for the NLDS.

The 27-year-old Sánchez emerged as a legitimate big-league starter this season, building on an impressive 19-game run from last year with a 3.32 ERA in 31 starts. Sánchez threw 180 2/3 innings in his first full season as a big-league starter and surrendered only 11 home runs. He had a 2.21 ERA at home. He made his first All-Star team and earned a four-year contract extension.

It was an unbelievable, unexpected season for a player who was not a fixture heading into 2023.

“Well, if anything, it’s a real positive, of course, because you have another pitcher that you feel comfortable can go out there and shut another club down,” Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said Tuesday. “So, he gives us another quality starting pitcher that we feel good about: four guys now. … And so with Sánchez’s growth, we’re in a position where you think our starting rotation is even stronger than it has been.”

Much of the lefty’s production was fueled by his 17 exceptional starts at home. He averaged 6.5 innings per start at Citizens Bank Park, while going only 5.1 innings with a 5.02 ERA in 14 road starts. It was a consistent trend throughout the season.

“I think early in the year, you don’t have the games under your belt,” Thomson said. “But as time goes on, it’s a thing. There’s just a lot of innings there that you can look at and say, ‘Well, maybe this is a thing.'”

The drastic home-road splits may nudge Thomson to use Sánchez in a home Game 2 instead of a Game 3 on the road. Last year, Sánchez pitched in Game 4 of the NL Championship Series against the Diamondbacks at Chase Field; he pitched only 2 1/3 innings and made a mental mistake in the field.

Choosing to pitch Sánchez in Game 2 would allow the less experienced pitcher to throw in a more comfortable situation, while the veteran Nola could take on the more hostile environment. Nola had a 3.57 ERA in 33 starts this season. He’s pitched in every round of the playoffs and made three road starts in the 2022 playoffs.

“And you get a guy in Nola, he’s calm and cool,” Thomson said. “Doesn’t matter where he’s pitching. I think a lot of those things are in play, and they’re things to have a conversation about and try and come up with a collective decision.”

Other variables have to come into play as well. While throwing Sánchez in Game 2 would allow Philadelphia to alternate between a righty and a lefty each game, it would also likely rule out the possibility for Nola to come back in relief on short rest for a potential Game 5; if the Mets advance, their lineup is more heavily right-handed. There’s a give and take with every scenario.

Thomson also noted that some of these splits can be fickle year-to-year. Sánchez’s home-road splits in 2024 may not be predictive for next season or even mean that he couldn’t pitch well in a road Game 3.

But the Phillies might not want to test that theory this time of year.

“I don’t know how much that is real,” Thomson said. “But with Sanchy’s innings and the starts he’s had this year, there is some reality to this.”