If baseball is a game of inches, postseason baseball is a game of millimeters. Add an intradivisional matchup to that equation and it’s more like a hair’s width. Make it a rivalry as bitter as Phillies vs. Mets and you’d better pull out your microscope.
It’s going to be brutal for both fanbases and, above all, unpredictable. But these teams have seen each other plenty before, which means history can help us forecast which matchups could play a large part, one way or another, in deciding who punches their ticket to the NLCS. Here are some candidates.
Alec Bohm vs. José Buttó
Buttó has become one of the Mets’ more trusted relievers this year, posting a 2.55 ERA in the regular season (2.00 flat since he came back up from Triple-A in early July). He faltered a bit in Wild Card Series Game 3, coughing up back-to-back homers to break a scoreless tie in the seventh. Pete Alonso gave him a chance at redemption in the NLDS. Alec Bohm will have other plans — and a solid track record against Buttó at his backing: He’s 5-for-9 with three homers against the Mets’ righty.
Pete Alonso vs. Matt Strahm
The Phillies have used Matt Strahm in all sorts of roles this season, and there’s no reason to think that’ll change in the postseason. He’s been better against righties than lefties — a 97-point batting average drop and 161-point OPS gap — which makes Pete Alonso perhaps an opportune spot to deploy him, especially if José Alvarado has been used. It’s not just the reverse splits, though: Alonso is 0-for-8 with four strikeouts in his career against Strahm.
Kyle Schwarber vs. David Peterson
If Kodai Senga did not exist, maybe David Peterson would be starting Game 1 of the NLDS. But the Mets used him in a wildly different role in the Wild Card Series, tasking him with closing out the decisive Game 3. He did so successfully, allowing a hit and inducing a series-ending double play. Maybe they’ve unlocked something — and maybe, in a pinch, they’ll want to test him against Kyle Schwarber, who’s 1-for-16 with 10 strikeouts in his career against the 6-foot-6 southpaw.
Francisco Lindor vs. Jeff Hoffman
There’s not a ton of sample to go off here, but this one feels like an inevitable late-game matchup, so when Lindor steps to the plate with the chance for a back-breaking eighth-inning RBI knock in front of a raucous Citi Field crowd, let Hoffman’s past success against the likely MVP runner-up save you from existential dread: He’s held Lindor hitless in four career plate appearances, with three strikeouts. Again, it’s not much. Maybe it’s something.
Entire top of the lineup vs. Edwin DÃaz
Speaking of inevitable. The Mets are clearly unafraid to push DÃaz when they deem it necessary, so if this part of the lineup comes up in the eighth and the Mets are clinging to a tight lead, maybe they’d want to turn to him an inning early. They’d have a reason to: Schwarber is 0-for-8 with six strikeouts, Trea Turner is 1-for-10 with five K’s and Harper is 2-for-15 with 11 against the two-time Reliever of the Year. If you want some reason for a shred of hope, though — those two hits are homers.
Mark Vientos vs. Cristopher Sánchez
The game might not be hanging in the balance when Vientos faces the Phillies’ recently-named Game 2 starter — but then again, October games can hang in the balance in the fourth inning, so maybe it will be. If so, there could be worse people than Mark Vientos for Phillies fans to see step into the box: Sánchez has retired him in each of their seven head-to-head matchups, six times via strikeout.
All matchup stats found on Stathead, and player stats on Baseball Reference.
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