If the Mets have one clear advantage in the series, it’s starting pitching depth.
They do not have the best starter in the series. That’s Zack Wheeler. You can argue that they don’t even have the second-best starter if you like Cristopher Sánchez or Aaron Nola over Sean Manaea.
What they do have is more options. The wild card series will push back Luis Severino and Manaea to Games 2 and 3, but the Mets will try to get through Game 1 by leaning on that advantage.
In a bit of a surprise, Kodai Senga, who has pitched in only one game this season, will start Game 1. He was the Mets’ ace heading into the season, but injuries have kept him on the shelf for just about the entire year. Both Senga and Mets manager Carlos Mendoza have sidestepped questions about his pitch count for Saturday. Senga would not even reveal how many pitches he threw in his last live batting practice session.
“If they say 10 pitches, I’m all in for 10 pitches,” Senga said via a team interpreter. “If they say 200, I’m in for 200.”
He can probably throw two — maybe three — innings, but don’t expect much more than that.
It’s a big risk. If the Phillies jump on Senga, it could take the Mets out of the game early, especially if Wheeler is dialed in.
Or it could all work out. If Senga’s signature forkball, a pitch the Phillies have swung and missed at 17 times over two starts last year, is working, the Mets could go to the bullpen with the Phillies still scoreless. Based on the matchups, New York could bring in the right-hander Tylor MeGill or David Peterson, who recorded his first ever save in the ninth inning of Game 3 against the Brewers. Both MeGill and Peterson, who have combined to allow six earned runs in 15 2/3 innings against the Phillies this season, could cover multiple innings apiece and bridge the Mets to the back end of their bullpen.
“We have a plan,” Mendoza said.
They could play the matchups and steal a victory in Game 1 if they can get a few big hits against Wheeler, who has a career 2.42 ERA in the postseason.
A Game 1 loss for the Phillies wouldn’t be a death sentence, but that would make Games 2 and 3 must wins. That’s because Game 4 could be a mismatch if Ranger Suárez’s end-of-year struggles bleed into the postseason. Lefty Jose Quintana is the most likely starter to oppose Suárez.
Quintana is on a heater. He’s allowed only three earned runs over his last seven starts, including six shutout innings against the Brewers on Thursday. He blanked the Phillies over seven on Sept. 13 and threw 5 1/3 shutout innings against Philadelphia in Game 1 of the 2022 National League Wild Card Series as a member of the St. Louis Cardinals.
Suárez’s struggles have been well documented. He has a 5.74 ERA since coming off the injured list on Aug. 24 with back issues. Rob Thomson expressed optimism about Suárez’s readiness after a strong showing in the Phillies’ intrasquad game on Wednesday. Catcher J.T. Realmuto, one of the hitters Suárez faced, agreed.
“And just talking with him after his outing, I saw that confidence in him,” Realmuto said. “He felt really good about how he felt and how his pitches were moving and his shapes. For me, that’s all I needed to see.”
The Phillies may have brighter stars in the rotation, but the Mets have more choices if they need to pivot.
We’ll have to see what it looks like in a game, but if they have to pitch Suárez in Game 4 at Citi Field with their season on the line, the Phillies could be in trouble. That’s why it’s important for the Phillies to win two out of the first three games in the series.
Latest on Jeff Hoffman
The Phillies’ best reliever, Jeff Hoffman, did not pitch in the intrasquad game due to a sore neck. Thomson said he threw a bullpen session on Friday and is “good to go.”
High Velocity
A big topic of discussion during the Phillies’ bye week is what they were actually going to do with all that time off. For the hitters, a lot of that time was spent training for high velocity and breaking pitches.
“We had a lot of high-velocity work on Tuesday,” Thomson said Friday. “A lot of breaking ball work, heavy velocity breaking ball work. … Yesterday was an optional workout and most of the guys came in and got help with a lot of velocity work in the cages. And here we are today. So I really liked the prep that the guys put in. Kevin [Long] and his staff did a great job in the hitting side. I feel like we’re ready to go.”
If the Phillies fail to hit in the series, don’t blame it on the curveball machine.
Don’t Be Afraid of New Yorkers
There’s a lot of panic on social media from Phillies fans regarding the amount of Mets fans that could be at the ballpark over the weekend.
It’s true. There will be Mets fans who are willing to pay the high prices on the secondary ticket market.
But it’s going to be nothing like the Sixers-Knicks fiasco from earlier this year. If you’re not familiar, Knicks fans completely took over the Wells Fargo Center during Games 3 and 4 of the NBA Eastern Conference First Round. Disgruntled Sixers season ticket holders — and probably the Sixers themselves — sold to excited Knicks fans who are typically priced out of seeing a playoff game at Madison Square Garden. It was so embarrassing that the Sixers made a conscious effort to give away free tickets to local fans to keep New Yorkers out of the building.
The economics here are different. Mets fans aren’t flocking to CBP because they are priced out of Citi Field. In fact, they will probably pay more for tickets at Citizens Bank Park because demand for Phillies postseason tickets is strong and most tickets are in the hands of the more than 20,000 season ticket holders.
There will be Mets fans, but there won’t be enough to hijack Red October. I can also make the argument that having some Mets fans, but not too many, could be good for the atmosphere at Citizens Bank Park.
Phillies fans could sometimes sit on their hands and get antsy when things aren’t going their way. If anxious silence is ever followed by “Let’s go Mets” chants, the Phillies crowd will boo to drown them out. There is always going to be noise, and that’s a good thing.
Now if the Phillies make it to the World Series and the Yankees are the opponent, it’s a different story.
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