Categories: Analysis

Two years removed from strong campaigns, trio of Phillies pitching prospects are now surrounded by uncertainty

Former first-round pick Mick Abel struggled at Triple-A Lehigh Valley in 2024. (Cheryl Pursell)

Two spring trainings ago, a lot of eyes were focused on a trio of Phillies pitching prospects. All right-handers, Andrew Painter, Mick Abel and Griff McGarry sat atop Philadelphia’s farm system. They were all coming off inspiring 2022 campaigns in the minor leagues.

Painter and Abel were first-round selections by the Phillies — Painter in 2021 and Abel in 2020. Both were selected out of high school. McGarry was a fifth-round pick in 2021 out of the University of Virginia.

Pre-season prospect rankings for the 2023 season differed by outlet. But Painter was a consensus top-10 prospect in baseball. Abel ranked in the top 50 among multiple outlets’ rankings. McGarry wasn’t as highly ranked on many lists. But Baseball America liked McGarry. He was their 51st-best prospect heading into the year.

The rankings were well deserved. Painter dominated in his full first season of pro ball in 2022, pitching at three different levels. He reached Double-A Reading by late August and finished his year with a 1.56 ERA in 103 2/3 innings.

Abel’s 2022 wasn’t as dominant as Painter’s, but it was still good. He started 18 games in High-A and five in Double-A. The right-hander pitched 108 1/3 innings with a 3.90 ERA. As for McGarry, he made 17 starts, appearing in 27 total games two seasons ago. His command was an issue; McGarry walked 18.6% of the batters he faced. But he posted a 3.71 ERA in 87 1/3 innings.

The respective futures of Painter, Abel and McGarry seemed understandably bright when Phillies pitchers and catchers reported to Clearwater in February 2023. Now, there are legitimate questions about the three pitching prospects. Some are more pressing than others.

Painter was primed to pitch in the majors in 2023. But after one spring training start, he suffered an elbow injury. The then 19-year-old was shut down. He did not pitch again that season; Painter underwent Tommy John surgery in July 2023. He is expected to pitch in the majors in 2025, but it’s unclear when he will make his debut, how many innings he’ll be able to throw and how effective he’ll be.

The youngest of the three, Painter has a clear path to contributing to the majors in 2025 and beyond.

As for Abel, he posted solid numbers again in 2023. But in 2024, he didn’t take a step forward in his development. Instead, he took steps back, finishing the year with a 6.46 ERA in 24 starts at Triple-A.

McGarry continued to struggle with command. His early minor-league success hasn’t continued as he’s been pushed upward in the Phillies’ farm system. In 2024, he was moved into a full-time reliever role, posting a 4.55 ERA. The right-hander has a 5.50 ERA in 47 appearances with a 20.5% walk rate over the last two seasons.

The question marks that surround these three young arms make sense. There’s no way of knowing how Painter will bounce back from major elbow surgery. Abel’s down year is a concern. McGarry hasn’t been effective with major command problems.

Painter is currently pitching in the Arizona Fall League. It’s a big step in his rehab. When speaking of the highly-touted right-hander, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski recently hinted at Painter seeing time in the majors in 2025.

“He is a very, very talented individual. It’s apparent he’s healthy and he’ll get a limited number of innings in the Arizona Fall League,” Dombrowski said of Painter last week at his end-of-year press conference.

Dombroski added: “And then [we’ll] be in a position where we’re going to have to make a determination how we’re going to use his innings next year because he’s not going to be a guy that we can throw out and count on pitching 180 innings at the major-league level.”

Dombrowski later noted Painter would have to earn a spot on the Phillies’ big-league roster “whenever it gets to that point.” The veteran front office executive admitted he’s unsure of what the plan will be for Painter next season.

“We need to figure out how many innings we feel comfortable for [Painter] to pitch next year,” Dombrowski said. “And then we need to have a plan in that regard. Does he pitch at the minor-league level for a while and then come up? Does he pitch two or three innings [per start] in the beginning and then have more innings at the back-end of the year? Does he have a consistent number of innings [per start] all year long?”

The Phillies will have those answers as 2025 Spring Training nears. Painter coming off Tommy John surgery will ultimately impact how the organization handles the 21-year-old moving forward.

The paths for Abel and McGarry are less clear. Abel will likely be back at Triple-A to start 2025. McGarry, currently pitching on the same AFL staff

as Painter, will probably return to the IronPigs, too.

The Phillies have a spot open in their major-league rotation entering the offseason. There will be a competition for the club’s fifth starting spot in spring training. Taijuan Walker, given a detailed plan for the offseason, will be in that competition. There will be other internal options competing for that spot, too. Painter probably doesn’t fit into that mix given his current rehab status. Abel isn’t a strong candidate right now, either. McGarry is not a starting pitcher anymore.

Dombrowski mentioned last week the club could look for an upgrade at the No. 5 spot in their rotation this winter. He admitted that Painter potentially finding his way into the mix at some point next year could make signing a pitcher more difficult.

“Yeah, perhaps. But those are things we have to figure out,” Dombrowski said. “It does make it a more difficult chore. …If you sign somebody, they’re looking for a chance to get the ball… there’s some complexities in it, but nothing that’s insurmountable.”

How the Phillies handle their starting pitching depth this offseason and next year will be important. Pitching, and pitching depth, are key to organizational success. On an innings limit, Painter’s role with the big-league club in 2025 is uncertain. Abel is an unknown for now. McGarry isn’t a starting option. None of them will be the Phillies’ full-time fifth starter.

Each facing their own set of issues and challenges, the respective developments of Painter, Abel and McGarry have stalled in recent seasons. Two years removed from strong campaigns, uncertainty surrounds all three pitchers heading into 2025.