A Phillies spending streak could end this winter

Over the last five-plus years, the Phillies have become one of baseball’s top-spending teams. The franchise hasn’t shied away from going after, and signing, top-tier players in free agency. It all started when they inked Bryce Harper to a $330-million contract before the 2019 season. The spending never stopped. It’s only continued.

Nobody knew it at the time, but Harper’s signing was the beginning of a streak by the Phillies’ front office. It was the first of six straight offseasons in which the club signed a player to a nine-figure contract.

After Harper’s deal, the Phillies signed Zack Wheeler to a $118-million deal during the 2019-2020 offseason. The winter after that, they re-signed J.T. Realmuto to a deal worth $115 million. Then, it was Nick Castellanos before 2022. Castellanos signed for $100 million. Trea Turner was next, signing for $300 million during the 2022-2023 offseason. Last year, Aaron Nola was re-signed for $172 million. Wheeler also signed his second contract with the Phillies: a three-year, $126 million contract that runs from 2025 to 2027. Four new players. Two returning. All signed for at least $100 million. That’s one heck of a spending streak.

The streak is alive. But it may soon come to an end.

The Phillies’ payroll for next year is going to be the highest in franchise history. It could push, or go beyond, $300 million. They may not want to spend a whole lot more. Keeping the streak alive all depends on the front office’s strategy this winter.

It’s still early. The GM Meetings were last week. There are a little more than three weeks left until the Winter Meetings. Plenty of options are on the table for the Phillies, but president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has said the phrase “open-minded” on numerous occasions in regards to the club’s approach to the offseason. He first said it at his end-of-year press conference on Oct. 15. Dombrowski said it again when talking to reporters at the GM Meetings.

Open-minded could mean a lot of things. But it’s safe to assume it means the club is open to trades more than they’ve been in the past. At his end-of-year presser, Dombrowski threw out the thought that, “Sometimes you have to trade good players for good players.”

The idea of upgrading and adjusting the roster via a trade, or multiple swaps of players and prospects, makes sense. With where the club’s 2025 payroll projects to be right now, it may not be smart to make a major upgrade through free agency.

Throwing money around can work. It’s worked for the Phillies. But doing so continuously has consequences. Lesser roster flexibility comes with having so many big contracts on the books. Luxury tax penalties can cost more money and draft picks.

That’s not to say the Phillies won’t, or shouldn’t, make a splash signing this offseason. But their biggest move this winter could be a trade instead of a signing.

Even if the Phillies don’t make a major trade and focus more on free agents, their streak of signing a player to a nine-figure deal during the offseason could still come to an end.

The club’s two biggest needs right now are in the outfield and bullpen. Juan Soto will sign somewhere for nine figures. The Phillies will be involved to some degree in the Soto sweepstakes. However, managing partner John Middleton thinks Soto wants to stay in New York.

Aside from Soto, the free-agent outfield market this winter isn’t too deep. There may not be another outfielder who signs for $100 million, at least with the Phillies. Signing a free-agent reliever will not cost $100 million, either.

Offseason spending has become part of the Phillies’ DNA in recent years. They will spend money this winter. But it may not be to the same extent as the last six offseasons. If not, it would put an end to a streak that helped put together one of the best rosters in baseball.

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