The official start of the MLB offseason doesn’t mean a flurry of signings and acquisitions like it does in the NBA, but it does help set the stage for the rest of the winter. Part of that is thanks to the qualifying offer.
Thirteen MLB players received the one-year QO, valued this year at $21.05 million, ahead of Monday night’s deadline for teams to extend it. (Those names are below, but you can find the whole list here, from ESPN’s Jeff Passan.)
For some players, the QO is a formality. Let’s go out on a limb: Juan Soto isn’t taking a one-year, $21.05 million deal. Teams offer it to eligible players guaranteed to reject it so that if they sign elsewhere, that team receives draft pick compensation.
That guarantee didn’t apply to either of the two Phillies who were QO-eligible, Jeff Hoffman and Spencer Turnbull, each of whom did not receive the offer. Turnbull was an obvious decision; he’d have certainly accepted it. Hoffman was less of a guarantee, but $21.05 million is a steep price tag for any reliever. The Phillies either thought that Hoffman would take it, or that the risk he would take it wasn’t worth the potential draft compensation if he rejected it and signed elsewhere. That compensation pick, for the Phillies, would have been after the fourth round because they paid the luxury tax this year.
What could apply to the 2025 Phillies is the penalty they’d have to pay should they sign one of the players who did receive the qualifying offer. (Yes, reader, that includes Soto.) Because the Phillies paid the luxury tax, signing such a player would strip them of both their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2025 MLB Draft. They’d also lose $1 million in international signing money.
If they sign a second player who turned down the QO, they’ll also surrender their third- and sixth-highest picks.
Soto and Alex Bregman are the two biggest QO-tied names that, in some universe, the Phillies could pursue this offseason. Anthony Santander is another (and perhaps more pragmatic than those two.) Teoscar Hernández feels like he’ll be back with the reigning champion Dodgers anyway. Willy Adames, Pete Alonso and Christian Walker are the other position players to receive the QO. They’re certain, certain and likely, respectively, to decline.
It’s hard to see the Phillies, with their thorough starting rotation, dabbling in the markets of any frontline starter this offseason. Therefore, Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Sean Manaea and Luis Severino rejecting their QOs probably doesn’t directly mean much to the Phillies. Nick Martinez may accept his. Nick Pivetta, anyone?
The qualifying offer was a hot topic in the last round of Collective Bargaining negotiations, with the Players Association seeking a removal of the system, because rejecting a QO often tanks a player’s free-agent market due to the associated penalties. Some won’t have that issue this winter because their team neglected to extend the offer (though, of course, they would’ve liked to accept it if they could’ve).
Here’s one that might be of interest to the Phillies: Tyler O’Neill, who got banged up a bit with Boston during the 2024 season but plays left field (a position of need) and wallops left-handed pitching (an attribute of need). If the Phillies sign O’Neill, the lack of a QO could make it cost a bit more, but they wouldn’t lose draft picks or international signing money for it.
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