Categories: Analysis

Orion Kerkering could be key Phillies reliever in 2025 with bullpen ‘pretty well set’

Orion Kerkering had a 2.29 ERA in 64 appearances in 2024. (Grace Del Pizzo/Phillies Nation)

Late last month, Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski made it sound like the current group of relievers employed by the club will be the only ones showing up in Clearwater in a little less than six weeks when pitchers and catchers report on Feb. 12.

“I think so,” said Dombrowski about whether or not the Phillies are finished adding to the bullpen. “I mean, again, you can always get better and you always listen. … I think [the bullpen] is pretty well set at this time.”

Two former Phillies relievers, Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estévez, are free agents. In October, Dombrowski said it was unlikely both would be back with the team in 2025. Right now, it looks like neither will be back.

Matt Gelb of The Athletic wrote on Thursday that Hoffman is “said to be seeking a deal similar to the one Clay Holmes scored with the New York Mets.” Holmes signed for three years and $38 million. New York is slated to use Holmes as a starter instead of a reliever, something teams have reportedly thought about doing with Hoffman.

Either way, re-signing Hoffman or Estévez doesn’t seem like it’s in the Phillies’ future.

The top of the reliever market has moved slowly. It hasn’t stopped the Phillies from adding to their bullpen. They signed former Blue Jays All-Star Jordan Romano during the Winter Meetings. The team hopes he re-finds his form after an injury-plagued 2024. Romano’s deal is for one year. The right-hander is expected to be a high-leverage arm in the back of the Phillies 2025 ‘pen. The club also signed righty Joe Ross to a one-year deal. Ross will be a swingman.

Another right-handed, high-leverage reliever the Phillies will rely on moving forward is Orion Kerkering. The 2022 fifth-round pick made 64 appearances and posted a 2.29 ERA last season.

Among qualified relievers in the National League, only 10 had a higher wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs, than Kerkering (1.5) in 2024. The right-hander was 21st in WAR among all qualified big-league relievers.

A large part of Kerkering’s effectiveness came from the use of his slider. He used it 55.7% of the time. Hitters batted .226 against it with a .306 slugging percentage.

Kerkering showed the ability to get both right- and left-handed hitters out last year. It’s a quality that makes him a great option for late-inning, high-leverage situations, no matter the pocket of hitters due up. Righties posted a .531 OPS versus Kerkering in 2024. Lefties had a .690 OPS against him, a mark lower than the league-average OPS (.734) for left-handed hitters versus right-handed pitchers.

Kerkering also strikes plenty of batters out without issuing a lot of walks. He struck out 28.8% of batters faced last year. His walk rate was just 6.6%. Both marks were well above average.

Manager Rob Thomson mostly used Kerkering in the seventh inning of games in 2024. Hoffman was mainly used in the eighth and ninth innings. Estévez didn’t enter a game for the Phillies before the ninth inning during the regular season. Kerkering was essentially third on the bullpen’s right-handed, late-game depth chart down the stretch.

But now, with Hoffman and Estévez likely signing elsewhere, Kerkering, entering his age-24 season, could find himself at the top of that depth chart at some point in 2025. Such a role would make him a key reliever for the Phillies.