Baseball America staff on Andrew Painter: ‘There are very few pitchers who could be this good’

If you aren’t a seasoned scout or veteran prospect analyst, it may be hard to truly fathom how good of a prospect Andrew Painter is.

Sure, you can watch clips of him mowing down lineups from 2022. You can research his stats from that year and notice his 1.56 ERA across 103 2/3 minor-league innings. But you still may not realize why the noise that surrounds Painter is so loud.

Step in J.J. Cooper, Editor-in-Chief, and Josh Norris, Senior Editor, of Baseball America for some perspective.

On Thursday, Cooper and Norris did a deep dive podcast on the Phillies farm system. The two started their talk with Painter. And what they had to say was more than ear-opening.

“[Painter’s] probably the best pitcher I’ve seen in my 12 years at Baseball America,” said Norris. “And maybe the third-best I’ve seen in my career behind José Fernández and Gerrit Cole… that’s the kind of arm we’re talking about here.”

Before his tragic passing at 24, Fernández quickly became one of baseball’s best starters. He entered 2013 as a highly-ranked prospect and thrived from the moment he stepped on a big-league mound. Fernández made 76 starts in his major-league career, posting a 2.58 ERA with 589 strikeouts in 471 1/3 innings.

As for Cole, he was also a highly-touted prospect. He’s turned into a potential future Hall of Famer. Cole won the AL Cy Young in 2023. He’s finished in the top-10 of Cy Young Award voting seven times, finishing inside the top-five six times. In 12 seasons, Cole has a 3.18 ERA in 317 starts.

But Painter is coming off major elbow surgery. How can he still be that good?

The right-hander returned to game action last fall, pitching a limited number of innings in the Arizona Fall League. Painter was the league’s pitcher of the year. According to Norris, his stuff didn’t change.

“What I saw in the (Arizona) Fall League — an ace,” Norris said. “The same thing I saw two years ago in his final start before he went up to Double-A.”

Norris later added: “It looked like he had just, like, woke up from a nap for two years and boom the stuff was intact. There’s no surgery involved, nothing had happened, just boom here he is. It’s the same guy I saw two years ago.”

What makes Painter so good?

Norris says he has the size, throws strikes, has the stuff and is savvy on the mound.

“It’s the volume and quality of the strikes that really just stand out,” Norris said. “And the relative ease of delivery from a guy that size.”

Norris also mentioned how nasty Painter’s reconfigured slider is, saying the right-hander can throw it when and where he wants. Hitters won’t be able to hit it.

Cooper also raved about Painter.

“There are very few Andrew Painters in the world,” said Cooper. “There are very few pitchers who could be this good.”

Painter’s Phillies debut will come at some point this summer. The Phillies have a plan in place for him. And, according to Cooper, the perfect scenario for the Phillies this year is Painter having enough innings left to contribute in October.

“The perfect scenario for the Phillies,” said Cooper, “Come next postseason, you’re looking around and saying, ‘How do we not start this guy?’… This guy can just blow hitters away.”

Even though he’s yet to throw a pitch in a big-league uniform, it’s clear big things are expected from Painter. As a soon-to-be 22-year-old, he has the makings of an ace. And maybe the makings of more than that.

“If this guy stays healthy,” Norris said. “I think he’s a Hall of Famer.”