There’s a Phillies lineup question far more interesting than who will hit leadoff

With spring training storylines mostly exhausted by now, breakout candidates identified and fringe roster battles nearing their conclusion, much of the Phillies talk eight sleeps from Opening Day is back to the leadoff spot. It feels like a waste of time. Where there’s smoke — especially smoke the team has done nothing to extinguish, instead striking more matches — there’s fire: Trea Turner is going to hit first. Agree or not with the logic (fair points either way), anything else would come as a surprise.

There’s a far more interesting lineup configuration question still, seemingly, outstanding.

Who hits third?

The obvious candidates are Alec Bohm and Kyle Schwarber, which also assumes that Bryce Harper is hitting second — something Rob Thomson has said will happen if Turner is leading off. He’s also said Schwarber won’t hit any lower than fourth, so, with all due respect to J.T. Realmuto and Nick Castellanos, we’ll boil it down to Schwarber and Bohm.

It should be Schwarber.

The reasons are many. For one, this is not your traditional lefty-lefty stack that managers tend to shy away from (excessively, sometimes). Schwarber slashed .300/.407/.491 against southpaws last year; Harper .301/.387/.520. Both damaged lefties more than they did righties.

Harper has always hit lefties (though not quite as well as righties); Schwarber less so. But there’s reason to think his production has staying power, because last year wasn’t by chance: He swung harder (per Statcast’s Bat Speed data) against righties than against lefties, and that discrepancy was especially pronounced with two strikes. He homered less often against lefties but also struck out less often. It’s a concession he seemed willing to take.

It only led to his best overall season as a Phillie. Schwarber, who’s trying out first base this spring in an effort to, yes, help the team — but also to build up his positional value in a contract year, seems to know that aging DH-onlys don’t get paid what their offensive stats alone suggest they would. He’s right, and neither do ones who can only mash righties.

So Schwarber’s capability against lefties makes the idea of a late-game lefty specialist reliever, summoned specifically for Harper and Schwarber, slightly less troubling.

It also, intuitively — and perhaps this is the best argument in favor of Harper-Schwarber-Bohm — gives the Phillies’ best hitter that much more protection at the top of the lineup.

It works better for Bohm, too. Beyond his power, Schwarber is known for his on-base skills, and he should reach even more if he’s frequently hitting with Turner or Harper on base before him. Bohm’s specialty is hitting with men on — .303 last year, though admittedly he was less prolific in an injury-marred second half — and the Phillies should do what they can to maximize those opportunities.

If Bohm is batting in the first inning, either someone is on base or there are runs on the board. It’s likely there’s someone in scoring position, too, a scenario in which Bohm has hit .312 in his career.

Say Turner and Harper both get out. The Phillies’ best chance, at that point, to score in the first inning is for Schwarber specifically trying to send one 430 feet against a pitcher still settling in. Sure, perhaps their best chance to score in the second inning is also for Schwarber to lead that frame off; he has been an effective rally-starter in his three years leading off with the Phillies. But that’s come with Bryce Harper looming not far behind him, rather than the 5-6-7 spots in the lineup.

This is all production-dependent. If it’s late-June and it’s apparent Schwarber’s 2024 success against lefties was an anomaly, abort mission. If Bohm has made The Leap and would actually protect Harper more than Schwarber is, adjust. But the season shouldn’t start under those assumptions.

Bohm could hit third on Opening Day and there would be reasons to talk yourself into it: No lefty-lefty stack (above metrics notwithstanding), theoretically more runners on base for Schwarber to maximize a home run total that should wind up in the 40s, less opportunity for a rally-killing strikeout. Maybe it’s what Thomson will go with.

It would be interesting, though, in that it would be worse for Schwarber (a couple dozen fewer plate appearances over the course of the season and more opportunities for pitchers to take the bat out of his hands); worse for Bohm (fewer RISP chances); and, above all, worse for Harper, the player whose production is required for the Phillies to go where they want to go.

In other words, those efforts to talk yourself into it would — should — fail. Kyle Schwarber should hit third.