Phillies 2025 over/unders: Wins, Andrew Painter debut and starters used

Opening Day is finally here!

Here are Phillies Nation’s last round of regular season predictions.

We’ve picked out a few of our favorite Phillies over/unders to debate. See what our staff writers have to say and leave a comment down below on what you think.

Wins: O/U 90.5

• Destiny: Under
• Ty: Over
• Nathan: Over
• Bailey: Over

Over the last three seasons, the Phillies have averaged a little more than 90.5 wins per season. They’ve increased their win total each year since 2022; doing it again this year would require a 96-win season. Most projections and sportsbooks have the club hovering around the high 80s to low 90s for their 2025 win total. It’ll be interesting to see if their win-increase trend continues or if the projections systems and oddsmakers know better. — Bailey Digh

Andrew Painter First Start Date: O/U (Before/After) First Game after All-Star Break

• Destiny: Under
• Ty: Over
• Nathan: Over
• Bailey: Under

The Phillies are using the term “July-ish” to describe Andrew Painter’s timetable. He’s operating with an innings limit, and I do wonder if it reaches a point where the Phillies feel like they are wasting bullets by keeping him in Lehigh Valley. The Phillies have waited two years to see him pitch. Stuff happens and if the Phillies are down two starters in June, Painter should probably be up. – Destiny Lugardo

J.T. Realmuto Games Started at Catcher: O/U 119.5

• Destiny: Over
• Ty: Under
• Nathan: Under
• Bailey: Under

Of the five full 162-game seasons J.T. Realmuto has spent with the Phillies, he’s started 130 games at catcher three times. Needless to say, he catches a lot when healthy. Manager Rob Thomson has talked about wanting Realmuto to catch less in 2025. But Realmuto is in a walk year. He also takes pride in his ability to catch as much as possible. Both will likely impact the total number of games he starts at catcher in 2025. Realmuto usually targets 120 catcher starts a season. How his workload is managed will be a storyline this year. — Bailey Digh

Brandon Marsh Starts vs. Left-Handed Starter: O/U 30.5

• Destiny: Under
• Ty: Under
• Nathan: Over
• Bailey: Over

Brandon Marsh is finally getting a real chance to prove that he is an everyday center fielder. I’m pretty confident that he’ll perform well and make people wonder why we’ve been having this stupid debate over the last two years. The concern here is that playing center field could put Marsh at greater risk of missing significant time due to injury. He’s had at least one injured list stint in each of the last three seasons. The guess here is that Marsh will make more than 16 starts against left-handed pitchers this year, but not 30, which is actually the number of starts his teammate Bryson Stott made against lefties last year. – Destiny Lugardo

Max Kepler Plate Appearances O/U: 456.5

• Destiny: Over
• Ty: Over
• Nathan: Over
• Bailey: Under

As a Max Kepler optimist dating back to before spring training, I feel obligated to hammer the over. The line, 456.5, is the average number of plate appearances he’s had in each of the last four seasons. He has not eclipsed 500 plate appearances in a season since 2019. If he stays healthy and keeps his job as the everyday left fielder, he should get to that 456 number with ease. Unless Weston Wilson hits his way into the lineup once he’s back from injury, the Phillies don’t really have anyone else that could displace him from the lineup. At least not until the trade deadline. Like Marsh, health is the bigger concern. He played through a partially detached abdominal muscle last season, and that’s reflected in the numbers. – Destiny Lugardo

Total Number of Starting Pitchers Used (No Openers): O/U 9.5

• Destiny: Over
• Ty: Under
• Nathan: Over
• Bailey: Over

When Ranger Suárez returns from the injured list, he’ll be at least the sixth normal starter the Phillies will use in 2025. At some point this summer, Andrew Painter will become at least the seventh traditional starter for the club. That leaves room for only two more traditional starters to be used for the under to hit. For reference, the club used 10 traditional starters in 2024. — Bailey Digh

Kyle Schwarber Starts in the Field: O/U 13.5

• Destiny: Over
• Ty: Over
• Nathan: Under
• Bailey: Under

Kyle Schwarber started five games in left field last season and 144 games at designated hitter. It sounds like the Phillies want to free up the DH spot a little more often this year for guys like J.T. Realmuto and Bryce Harper. On those days, Schwarber would have to play somewhere in the field. He got reps in left and at first base during spring training. He’d have to average 2.25 starts per month in left for the over to hit. That probably sounds like a low number to some and a high number to others. — Bailey Digh

Garrett Stubbs First Game Played in Majors: O/U (Before/After) June 15

• Destiny: Under
• Ty: Under
• Nathan: Under
• Bailey: Over

Phillies fans have not seen the last of Garrett Stubbs with the big league club. His job now is to work as an extension of the big league coaching staff. They will even get his input on some potential big league call-ups, as Ty Daubert mentioned in his recent story about Stubbs’ arrival in Lehigh Valley. He’s going to be extremely valuable for the Phillies in that role, but they won’t hesitate to bring him up if either Realmuto or Rafael Marchan need to spend some time on the injured list. It will probably happen sooner rather than later. If that doesn’t happen, expect to see Stubbs, the party animal in the clubhouse, whenever the Phillies clinch a postseason berth. – Destiny Lugardo