Bullpen’s improved command at the heart of the Phillies’ turnaround

A lot of people deserve credit for the Phillies’ turnaround.

You can start at the top and give props to Dave Dombrowski for having the stones to make the league’s first in-season managerial change in four years. You can credit Rob Thomson for his steady leadership, but he insists the team deserves all of the praise. Kyle Schwarber and Rhys Hoskins have stabilized the top of the Phillies lineup. Before he got hurt, Bryce Harper was performing at an MVP level. The starting rotation, led by two of the best pitchers in the National League in Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, continues to eat innings at an impressive pace. The rotation’s 23 starts of at least seven innings leads all of MLB.

Then there’s the bullpen. Before June, the unit underwhelmed in many categories. From April 8 to May 31, they had the highest walk rate in the majors (4.73 BB/9) as well as the highest batting average on balls in play (.317). The bullpen’s 4.22 ERA was the seventh-worst in the majors.

José Alvarado and Connor Brogdon, two workhorses for the Phillies last season, were sent to Triple A to work out their issues with command and velocity. Closer Corey Knebel blew a few saves and had little feel for his curveball for an extended period of time. Jeurys Familia, Nick Nelson and James Norwood all struggled as well.

Then something big happened in June: The unit’s command improved across the board. The walk rate per nine innings dropped from 4.73 from April to May to 3.52 from June 1 onward. They went from dead last in the majors in that category for the first two months of the season to 15th since June 1. It’s still shaky at times, but when you combine that with the seventh-best strikeout and home run ratio (9.73 K/9 and (0.75 HR/9) as well as the third-lowest BABIP (.234) in that same time span, then you can work around the free passes.

Brad Hand (5.79 BB/9 from April 8 to May 31 to 2.77 since June 1) is among the biggest improvers. Seranthony Domínguez, whose pinpoint command was an outlier earlier in the season, has not walked a batter since May 21.

The Phillies bullpen has the fifth-best ERA in the league since June 1 at 2.93.

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Some Phillies pitchers have made adjustments in recent weeks. Alvarado in particular is a brand new pitcher following a significant change in his repertoire. Alvarado, who has not allowed an earned run in 12 consecutive outings, is now relying heavily on a cutter. Hitters are batting .059 against the pitch since June 12. He’s now a 50/50 cutter, sinker pitcher and while he’s still walking opposing hitters at a high rate, he’s striking guys out (14.73 K/9 since June 12), getting ground balls (12 grounders in his last 11 innings) and suppressing hits (no hits allowed in five July outings).

Nelson also emerged as a reliable arm to bridge the gap between the middle innings when a starter doesn’t go deep and the back of bullpen. For weeks, he struggled in the same role. Thirteen of his 19 earned runs allowed this season have come after his first inning of work. He’s now on an 8 2/3 inning scoreless streak dating back to June 19 and played a huge role in three Phillies comeback victories over the last two weeks.

Nelson, along with minor league free agent Andrew Bellatti, was an analytics-driven acquisition that didn’t get much publicity in the offseason, but has paid dividends so far. Bellatti has emerged as a medium to high-leverage reliever and has a 3.25 ERA in 27 2/3 innings.

“We’re at the point now where we trust about everybody,” Thomson said last week.

Does the success have much to do with settling into a role?

“I think it’s part of it, but making sure you put them in the right pocket of the order so that they have a chance to have success. That’s all part of it too,” Thomson said. “Making sure that they’re getting consistent work, but not overworking them. That’s part of it. There’s a lot to it.”

Does the recent success in the bullpen mean that the Phillies should prioritize other areas at the trade deadline? Probably not. Injuries over the next few weeks can change everything and there’s no guarantee that the bullpen will continue its impressive stretch. Even the best bullpens should always be shopping for extra arms.

The lineup could use one or two rental bats and depending on the health of the rotation, an extra starter could be nice. Ranger Suárez reportedly has an outside chance of returning during the Marlins series next week while Zach Eflin is not expected back before the All-Star break.

Maybe the need for more relievers is not as urgent as it once was. For once, it’s refreshing to talk about the bullpen in a positive light.

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