Aaron Nola will start World Series Game 1

Rob Thomson has announced the Phillies’ pitching plans to open the World Series, and for the first time in his career, Aaron Nola will get the ball in a postseason Game 1.

Nola will become the first Phillie to start a World Series game since Pedro Martínez in 2009. He’ll be the first Phillie to start Game 1 of the Fall Classic since Cliff Lee allowed one unearned run in a complete game win that same year.

Zack Wheeler had been the Phillies’ Game 1 starter in the Wild Card Series and NLCS, and he got the ball before Nola in the NLDS. The change this time around will allow Wheeler an extra day of rest before getting the nod in Game 2. Wheeler threw an effective six-plus innings of two-run ball in the clinching Game 5 against the San Diego Padres on Sunday, but after approaching triple digits in the first inning, his velocity was down to 94 mph by the time he was pulled. It’s a similar trend as in his previous outing, Game 1 in San Diego.

Nola, who has historically seen more success pitching on extra rest, last started on Wednesday, meaning his outing would’ve come on extra rest whether he started Game 1 or Game 2. He’ll now have eight days off instead of nine before his World Series debut. 

There are implications beyond just the first two games of the series, however, that presumably made flipping the 1-2 a tougher call. Nola is now lined up to pitch a potential Game 5 in Philadelphia, whereas Wheeler will figure to get the nod in Game 6 should the series return to Houston. (Nola has pitched better at home than on the road both in his career at large and in the postseason, though his 6 2/3 perfect innings in Minute Maid Park on Oct. 3 are certainly worth noting).

It will likely leave Wheeler unavailable for a potential Game 7, whereas Nola, especially with the off day after Game 5, could make an appearance out of the bullpen in such a winner-take-all game. All else being equal, the Phillies would probably prefer to have Wheeler out of the bullpen in a Game 7; both pitchers have been effective this postseason, but Nola struggled his last outing in San Diego whereas Wheeler continued to cruise in Games 1 and 5 of the NLCS.

But Game 7 is far from a guarantee anyway, and the Phillies are betting that the pros — primarily, the extra day off for Wheeler — outweigh the potential cons.

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