The Phillies have already signaled to the league that they are shopping for a starting pitcher this offseason. They could be players at the top end. Maybe they land the top option available in Carlos Rodón or Dave Dombrowski reunites with Justin Verlander.
But the more likely outcome is that the Phillies save their money and target a mid-rotation starter.
With Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Ranger Suárez all returning and three top 100 starting pitching prospects who could be ready to debut this year, the Phillies have some room to take a risk with their free agent starting pitching acquisition.
Maybe the best upside play could be for a pitcher they are very familiar with.
There was once a time the Phillies touted Zach Eflin as their “1-C” with Wheeler and Nola being the 1-A and 1-B. Injuries more than anything else have kept him from reaching that stature.
Over the last three seasons, Eflin has pitched to a 4.08 ERA over 240 1/3 innings. That’s good for a 104 ERA+, meaning he’s pitched four percent better than league average. He hasn’t pitched like an ace, but when healthy, he has thrown well enough to be a No. 3 and 4 starter on a playoff contender.
Those numbers usually get you paid on the free agent market. The problem is that a nagging knee injury – one that sidelined him from late June to September in 2022 – kept Eflin off the field for most of his platform year. His earnings potential will take a hit because of that.
MLB Trade Rumors predicts Eflin will get a two-year, $22 million contract. Just as a comparison, Taijuan Walker, who is also under 30 and has posted similar numbers compared to Eflin over the past three seasons, is projected to make $52 million over four years. Walker has thrown 129 more innings than Eflin since 2020.
The Phillies have better information than the 29 other clubs regarding Eflin’s health and the chances his right knee could hold up for a full season. There has to be concern that Eflin, in an attempt to return this season as a starter, experienced discomfort after throwing up and down bullpens.
If there’s a club that’s willing to guarantee Eflin three years at around $40 million, then maybe the Phillies should look elsewhere for pitching help.
But let’s say Eflin’s market does not develop the way he had hoped and he’s looking at a one-year prove-it deal or a two-year pact with an average annual value around the $15 million he rejected as part of his end of a 2023 mutual option. At that price, the Phillies should be open minded to bringing Eflin back for an eighth season and possibly more.
Maybe the Phillies have kicked the can on Eflin being an ace, but as a 28-year-old, it’s not as if he’s running out of time to prove that he can work as a starter.
If he doesn’t get a three-year-deal, Eflin could be open to two years with incentives or an opt out after year one, or a one-year deal for a high AAV.
Every other mid-rotation starter on the market that does not have major injury concerns will likely command a three-year-deal. The Phillies are hopeful within the next couple years that their young prospects, Andrew Painter, Mick Abel and Griff McGarry, will carve out a role in the rotation.
With the Phillies also having interest in signing Aaron Nola to a long-term extension, would it be smart for the Phillies to commit long-term years and dollars to a mid-rotation starter? Having too many starters is a good problem for a contending team to have, but the Phillies’ need for a mid-rotation starter is a short-term problem that does not need a long-term solution.
Let’s say the Phillies sign Eflin to a one-year contract at a price of around $23 million and he makes around 28 starts with an ERA in the high 3s or low 4s. That’s far from a likely outcome but if that happens, both the Phillies and Eflin will be rewarded for the risk they took. The Phillies get mid rotation production for a fair price and they could potentially extend a qualifying offer to Eflin next offseason. In the event that he rejects, which is likely because Eflin is seeking long-term security, the Phillies will recoup a draft pick. If Philadelphia goes over the luxury tax again in 2023, that pick will come after the fourth round.
And with the trio of top prospects expected to contribute in 2023, the Phillies are better equipped to handle losing Eflin mid-season.
Eflin, who wants to start next season, loves playing in Philadelphia. It was satisfying for both the team and fans to see Eflin contribute out of the bullpen in the playoffs, but it still feels like there’s more to Eflin’s Phillies career than we have seen.
The best case scenario is that Eflin has a career year and both the Phillies and Eflin cash in on it. The worst case is that Eflin misses a significant chunk of the season for a third straight year and one of the young guys take his place. If the Phillies have belief in both their trio of young prospects and Eflin’s ability to meet the expectations they had for him prior to the start of the 2021 season, then this shouldn’t be too daunting of a bet for the Phillies and Eflin to make.
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