Memorial Day is considered by many to be the unofficial start of summer. In the baseball community, it may as well be Opening Day for trade season as well.
Even at 25-28, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where the Philadelphia Phillies aren’t buyers in advance of the trade deadline, which this year is on Aug. 1. It’s just a matter of the extent that president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski pushes the chips in this summer.
And let’s face it, this isn’t a team whose playoff window is just opening. Zack Wheeler and J.T. Realmuto are 32. Nick Castellanos is 31. Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber are 30. Trea Turner and Aaron Nola will turn 30 later this summer, and the latter can become a free agent after the 2023 season. There’s no moment quite like the present for the Phillies.
While for many clubs “anything can happen if you get into the playoffs” is an annoying cliche, it rings especially true in Philadelphia. The Phillies won 87 games and snuck in as the final Wild Card representative in the National League a year ago. They finished just two wins shy of a World Series title. Winning the NL East and securing a first-round bye is, of course, the best scenario for the Phillies. But all that really matters is securing one of the six postseason spots in the senior circuit.
With all that in mind, here are the three biggest needs for the Phillies, as they look to return to the playoffs for the second year in a row.
No. 1: Starting Pitcher Capable Of Taking The Ball In A Postseason Game
You need at least three starting pitchers capable of pitching in a playoff game, and ideally, four. At best, the Phillies have two right now.
Wheeler pitched eight shutout innings against the Atlanta Braves Saturday, lowering his ERA to 3.60 and FIP to 2.67. Right now, he would be the Game 1 starter if the Phillies reached the postseason.
Nola would almost certainly take the ball in Game 2, but he has a 4.59 ERA and 4.32 FIP through 11 starts. He has still logged 68 2/3 innings pitched, but Nola has unquestionably struggled so far in his contract year. Both for the Phillies and his own financial future, Nola needs to get hot soon.
After that, there’s no certainty. For as good as Ranger Suárez was last postseason, he has a 9.82 ERA to show after his first three starts in 2022. In the first year of a four-year deal, Taijuan Walker’s ERA sits at 5.57 after 11 starts. And the fifth spot in the rotation has been a hole, unless Matt Strahm re-emerges as a starting option later in the season. But an argument could be made that Strahm would have more value in a short series out of the bullpen.
At this point, anything the Phillies get out of No. 1 prospect Andrew Painter in 2023 is a bonus, but they can’t count on the 20-year-old logging meaningful innings this season. It’s a hope-for-the-best, but-don’t-anticipate-the-best type situation.
With Nola set to become a free agent after 2023, and Wheeler after 2024, it might be wise for the Phillies to acquire a starting pitcher under control for multiple seasons. But acquiring such a player might mean giving up RHP Mick Abel and/or RHP Griff McGarry, the No. 2 and No. 3 prospects in the Phillies system, respectively.
An alternative route would be going for a rental. LHP Eduardo Rodriguez is having a bounce-back season for the Detroit Tigers, as he has a 2.13 ERA after 11 starts. He’s increasingly likely to opt out of his contract this winter, rather than opt into three years and $49 million. The 30-year-old lefty was on the Boston Red Sox when they won the 2018 World Series, a team built in part by … Dombrowski.
Potential Fits: LHP Eduardo Rodriguez, Detroit Tigers … RHP Lucas Giolito, Chicago White Sox … RHP Marcus Stroman, Chicago Cubs … RHP Shane Bieber, Cleveland Guardians … Lance Lynn, White Sox … Cal Quantrill, Guardians
No. 2: Back-End Starting Pitcher
If the asking price for a front-of-the-rotation starter proves too rich for the Phillies liking — or some combination of Nola, Suárez and Walker rebound after disappointing starts — they will still need another starting pitcher.
The options here are a lot less sexy, especially at this stage of their respective careers, but they would still be an improvement over the hole that the Phillies have at No. 5 right now.
Perhaps a rebuilding team would be interested in taking back Bailey Falter for an expiring contract, intrigued by the 3.38 ERA he posted after the All-Star Break a season ago. Some might even believe that he could become a valuable multi-inning reliever.
Outfielder Simón Muzziotti is another piece that should be of interest to teams willing to trade pitching. The 24-year-old has an elite glove, and an .891 OPS at Triple-A. If the Phillies think that Brandon Marsh and Cristian Pache are going to be their center field options for the next few seasons, Muzziotti doesn’t really have a path forward in Philadelphia.
Potential Fits: Rich Hill, Pittsburgh Pirates … Corey Kluber, Boston Red Sox … Brad Keller, Kansas City Royals … Trevor Williams, Washington Nationals
No. 3: Corner Infielder, Ideally A Right-Handed Hitter
Rhys Hoskins said in April that he’s holding out hope of rejoining the Phillies for a postseason run, but given that he tore his left ACL in late March, that feels unlikely.
Make no mistake, the Phillies miss the run-producing threat of Hoskins, especially in a lineup with so many left-handed hitters. So finding a right-handed hitter capable of playing at least one corner infield spot and contributing in the lineup should be a priority.
Now, if Harper playing first base materializes before the trade deadline, that would open the Phillies up to consider corner outfield options because the DH spot would then be available — at least on some days — for Schwarber or Castellanos. But for now, finding a first and/or third base-type would make the most sense.
Alec Bohm hasn’t necessarily had a breakout season so far, but the former first-round pick has played at both corner infield positions and consistently driven in runs when given the chance. Edmundo Sosa, however, has probably been overexposed and is best used as a super-sub, rather than someone who starts four or five times a week.
If the Phillies acquire a right-handed bat, it leaves the door open for Darick Hall or Kody Clemens to still be part of the equation at first base and potentially DH.
Potential Fits: Wil Myers, Cincinnati Reds … C.J. Cron, Colorado Rockies … Joey Meneses, Nationals … Jurickson Profar, Rockies
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