Why Noah Song pitching for the Phillies in 2023 isn’t as much of a ‘long shot’ as it seems

On June 20, the Phillies blew a winnable game at home against the Atlanta Braves partly because they were short on backend arms. José Alvarado, Yunior Marte and Matt Strahm were all unavailable due to workload and it led to the Phillies using a compromised Jeff Hoffman to try to keep the best lineup in baseball from scoring. It ended poorly and while most were blaming Rob Thomson and his strict bullpen management rules, there was an argument to be made that the front office cost them the game by failing to optimize all 13 roster spots for pitchers.

Since the beginning of June, the Phillies have carried right-hander Dylan Covey as a “bulk reliever.” To his credit, he’s been fine. Four out of his six relief outings have been scoreless. The problem is that he’s been used six times over the last five weeks.

It’s inconceivable to think, especially since the Phillies have Andrew Bellatti, Connor Brogdon, and Luis Ortiz in Triple A, that they are happy with carrying a right-handed reliever that’s as seldom used as Covey. They have essentially been playing with 12 pitchers and mostly getting away with it.

This isn’t to excuse the front office’s questionable decision making regarding the final roster spot, but there may be something more to this. If the Phillies can tolerate carrying a pitcher averaging about a week between outings, there’s no reason why they can’t carry Rule 5 pick Noah Song through the end of the regular season.

If you’re wondering who this Song kid is and why a 26-year-old pitcher who hasn’t thrown above A-ball is getting so much attention, here’s the rundown:

• Song was drafted in the fourth round by the Boston Red Sox in 2019 out of the United States Naval Academy. Baseball America labeled him as the most talent senior pitcher in the country. He fell to the fourth round because of future military service obligations.
• After posting a 1.06 ERA across 17 innings in the New York-Penn league in 2019, Song was denied a waiver to forgo active military service in order to pursue a career in professional baseball. He would have to step away from the sport and serve the country as a Naval flight officer. Multiple attempts to obtain a waiver were denied after that.
• Nearly two years later, the Phillies shocked the baseball world and selected Song in the 2022 Rule 5 draft. The Phillies placed him on the military list.
• The Phillies were informed in February that Song’s latest request to move from active duty to select reserves was approved. Song immediately reported to spring training in Clearwater.
• Song has been on the 60-day injured list since Opening Day with a “low back strain.” He began a rehab assignment on June 28. If he remains healthy, the Phillies must place him on the active roster by July 28 or subject him to waivers.

Song’s roster status is subjected to Rule 5 limitations. After spending the first four months of this season on the injured list, Song must spend at least 90 days on the Phillies active roster in order for the team to obtain the right to option him to the minor leagues. He will not accrue the full 90 days this year; there isn’t enough time left this season, but those 90 days can reportedly spill over to next season.

“I would still say it’s more of a long shot because when you’re talking about a club like ours, a club that’s in a playoff race, the spot you’re talking about is the last spot in your bullpen,” Dave Dombrowski told Todd Zolecki at the end of June. “Can you afford to have somebody like that in that last spot? I can’t answer that at this point.”

Dombrowski said this before Song’s rehab assignment commenced. The results so far are promising. He reached 96 mph on his fastball in his last outing on July 4. He went 1 2/3 innings and while the fastball was hovering closer to 92-93 in his second inning of work, it’s encouraging to see Song reach the mid-90s this early in his rehab assignment. He maxed out at around 99 mph for Team USA in the WBSC Premier12 in October 2019.

The Phillies will learn more once Song begins pitching in the higher levels of the minor leagues. He’s expected to stay with Clearwater through the weekend.

If Song stays healthy, holds his velocity and continues to pitch well, the Phillies might be intrigued enough to carry him on the roster at the end of July. If the Covey conundrum has taught us anything, it’s that the Phillies, for the most part, have enough bullpen depth to pull off carrying Song for at least a month.

The Phillies depth, however, makes it tricky. Now that the Phillies have a five-man rotation, they have a seven-man bullpen. The only pitchers in the bullpen with minor league options are Gregory Soto and Yunior Marte. Seranthony Domínguez becomes three when he eventually returns after the All-Star break. Barring any other bullpen injuries, he should take Covey’s spot on the roster. If all are healthy and the bullpen is Alvarado, Strahm, Domínguez, Soto, Hoffman, Craig Kimbrel, and Andrew Vasquez once Song has to be activated, do the Phillies really want to send down Marte again in favor of Song?

It’s an enviable problem to have. The Phillies have a good bullpen and it’s hard to justify not getting the most out of every roster spot. Even though that’s exactly what the Phillies are doing now with Covey in the bullpen, maybe the Phillies decide the best path forward is to trade Song at the deadline for an intriguing prospect without Rule 5 limitations or a high quality rental bat at the deadline. Non-contending teams may find the challenge of carrying Song on their roster more tangible.

It gets much easier for the Phillies come Sept. 1 if they choose to keep him, when rosters expand to 28 and teams are allowed to carry 14 pitchers. Song doesn’t have to be on a playoff roster and the Phillies could go into next season with a full offseason behind him and only needing to burn a month on his Rule 5 clock.

It’s a complicated situation worth following. At the end of last year, Song was preparing for his first overseas deployment to Japan. He could be pitching in the major leagues for a World Series contender in a matter of weeks. It’s a tremendous story.

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