The last-place St. Louis Cardinals plan to sell at this year’s trade deadline with the intention of remaining competitive in the NL Central in 2024. The Cardinals insist that superstars Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt are not available, but there are other intriguing names on St. Louis’ roster that are being floated around in trade discussions.
Among a group of Cardinals players that are reportedly available are two flamethrowing right-handed relievers: Jordan Hicks and Ryan Helsley. The Phillies would be wise to show interest in both.
Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported Sunday that the Cardinals are shopping both Hicks and Helsley. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch had a similar report out last week.
There’s no doubt that the Phillies bullpen is the strength of the club. The unit has the fourth-best ERA in the sport since June 1, but is operating without two of its top arms. José Alvarado (left elbow inflammation) has not resumed throwing and could miss significant time in the second half of the season. Seranthony DomÃnguez (left oblique strain) will throw again in live batting practice on Tuesday and could be days away from beginning a rehab assignment.
Even without DomÃnguez and Alvarado, the bridge to Craig Kimbrel is holding up well. Gregory Soto, Matt Strahm and Andrew Vasquez are three reliable options from the left side. Yunior Marte, Jeff Hoffman and Andrew Bellatti have taken down high leverage innings, but there are points, especially when either of these three are unavailable due to workload, where DomÃnguez’s absence looms large.
Maybe regression is coming for the Phillies bullpen. Maybe it isn’t, but there’s also something to be said about taking the Alex Anthopoulos-esque route of building off your strengths. Nobody thought the Braves would trade for catcher Sean Murphy last offseason with Travis d’Arnaud already on the roster, but Anthopoulos saw an opportunity to acquire one of the best catchers in the sport and extend him to a long-term contract to complete the Braves’ core of impressive position players.
The Phillies are not the machine that is the Atlanta Braves. They have a glaring need for right-handed pop and the Phillies will likely find a way to attack that need, but after that, Dave Dombrowski and the front office has room to get creative.
It’s why the Phillies should strengthen their right-handed core of relievers and look to acquire one of Hicks or Helsely.
Hicks, 26, has a 3.86 ERA across 38 innings this season. Since taking over as the Cardinals closer in June, Hicks has a 2.61 ERA over his last 10 outings. After throwing only 100 innings in four years from 2019 to 2022, Hicks is finally healthy for the first time since his rookie season in 2018.
When healthy, Hicks has one of the most electric arms in MLB. Nobody in baseball has thrown more pitches over 100 mph (1,561) than Hicks since his debut. Like most relievers with electric stuff, he sometimes doesn’t know where it’s going, but he has been better as of lately. He’s walked only seven batters in his last 21 games.
Hicks will become a free agent after this season. His lengthy injury history will complicate his free agency, but for now, he’s probably the most intriguing bullpen rental available on the market.
If the Phillies prefer to acquire a reliever with multiple years of team control left, Helsley, who won’t be a free agent until after the 2025 season, could be a better option.
To Phillies fans, he’s better known as the guy who blew it in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series, but Helsley was one of the best closers in baseball last year until he jammed his middle finger in a meaningless outing against the Pirates days before the playoffs began.
He posted a 1.25 ERA in 64 2/3 innings and was an All-Star in 2022. He has a 3.24 ERA this year, but 18 of his 22 outings have been scoreless. He’s been out since mid-June with a forearm strain and reportedly threw off the mound for the first time since the injury occurred on Saturday. His absence will likely extend into August, but apparently, that’s not stopping the Cardinals from engaging with interested clubs.
Like Hicks, Helsley is a high velocity, fastball/slider guy. He’s thrown 102 pitches that have hit triple digits this year. For context, Alvarado has 47 and Soto has 15. Hicks has 351.
Both Cardinals pitchers fit the profile of an ideal backend Phillies arm, which is anyone with a lot of red on their Baseball Savant page and some blue underneath “BB%.” They have a track record of betting on stuff and winning the jackpot.
Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak made it clear that his team is looking to acquire young pitching at the trade deadline. The Phillies gave up a very good pitching prospect in Ben Brown to acquire rental reliever David Robertson from the Cubs last year, but they don’t have another pitching prospect like Brown who was a tier below last year’s untouchable big three of Andrew Painter, Mick Abel and Griff McGarry.
It’s hard to envision the Phillies giving up McGarry or Abel for just one reliever, especially when bullpen isn’t an urgent need. Maybe things get interesting if the Cardinals are willing to package one Hicks or Helsley with outfielders Tyler O’Neill or Dylan Carlson.
No matter what, it’ll be fun to see what the Phillies and Cardinals do at the trade deadline. Last year’s Edmundo Sosa for JoJo Romero trade days before the deadline turned out to be an under-the-radar move that helped propel the Phillies forward in the pursuit of their first National League pennant since 2009. Maybe the Phillies can pull off another lopsided trade with St. Louis this time around.
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