Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estévez did not end the season on a good note, but they’ll still be among the more coveted relievers on the free agent market this offseason — and the Phillies will certainly be in the running.
To sign one of them, that is — but probably not both, as Dave Dombrowski heavily suggested in his end-of-season press conference last week. They’ll both likely command multi-year contracts, even if the Phillies extend Hoffman a one-year qualifying offer at $21.2 million. (Estévez is ineligible for the QO because he was traded during the season.)
Current analyst for The Athletic and former MLB general manager Jim Bowden ranked the top 45 (likely) free agents in this year’s cycle and offered contracts predictions for each. Both Estévez (35) and Hoffman (43) made the cut, with similar three-year predictions: Estévez at $33 million, Hoffman at $27 million.
As Phillies Nation’s Destiny Lugardo explained last week, the Phillies’ payroll will go up next season, and they’re likely to find themselves in the third luxury tax tier for the first time. At that point, whether they spend on relievers (or anyone, for that matter) comes down partially to whether they’re willing to pay a 95% tax on that contract, or 110% for overages above $301 million. Dombrowski said all indications are that the Phillies will have an “aggressive” payroll again next year.
Maybe that means they’ll pay whatever they need to for Juan Soto. But would it make sense for Hoffman or Estévez? The postseason this year has highlighted what was already conventional knowledge about relievers in today’s MLB — they’re volatile, success is fleeting and anyone is susceptible to one bad inning that can cut a team’s season short. Ask Emmanuel Clase, Josh Hader or Devin Williams, elite relievers who hit a wall in October as their teams got bounced. Or just ask Estévez and Hoffman, whose NLDS struggles contributed — not single-handedly, but contributed nonetheless — to the Phillies’ early exit.
On the flip side, Hoffman’s performance against the Mets was such a surprise because he’d mostly been reliable for the Phillies up until then. He posted a 2.17 ERA in the regular season — which was 1.65 up until his very last outing in the penultimate game — striking out 89 batters in 66 1/3 innings. He was better in the first half than in the second, but it’s hard to slice his body of work as a whole in a way that makes you think the Phillies would be better off without him.
As for Estévez, that’s less clear. He doesn’t quite rack up the strikeout numbers you’d expect from a back-end flamethrower, he worked into a decent amount of trouble in his two-month Phillies tenure and he’s been used a bit more as a ninth-inning exclusive than Hoffman, which isn’t a role the Phillies have typically deployed the past few years.
If Bowden’s predictions are accurate, the Hoffman deal seems like the better one; it’s a better reliever at a lower price. But maybe the Phillies go in a different direction altogether. Who takes their place, though, in that event is anyone’s guess.
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